Catastrophic Risk: Waking Up to the Reality of a Pandemic?
Catastrophic Risk: Waking Up to the Reality of a Pandemic?
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DOI：
10.1007/s10393-020-01479-8
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发表时间：
2020-04-29
期刊：
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Daszak, Peter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pike, Jamison;Shogren, Jason F.;Daszak, Peter
一场重大冲击会让美国公民意识到灾难性流行病的威胁吗？利用2014年西非埃博拉疫情爆发前后进行的自然实验，我们的证据表明“没有”。我们的研究结果表明，在埃博拉恐慌之前，美国公民相对自满，并且相对于环境灾害风险（例如福岛）或恐怖袭击（例如9/11）而言，将公共支出放在为流行病爆发做准备的相对较低的优先级。在埃博拉恐慌之后，普通民众并没有对风险做出过度反应。考虑到众所周知的可得性启发，这种平淡的反应是出乎意料的——人们倾向于对事件的判断更偏重于最近的信息。相比之下，与恐怖主义或环境风险相比，普通公民对大流行风险的重视程度仍然较低。
Will a major shock awaken the US citizens to the threat of catastrophic pandemic risk? Using a natural experiment administered both before and after the 2014 West African Ebola Outbreak, our evidence suggests "no." Our results show that prior to the Ebola scare, the US citizens were relatively complacent and placed a low relative priority on public spending to prepare for a pandemic disease outbreak relative to an environmental disaster risk (e.g., Fukushima) or a terrorist attack (e.g., 9/11). After the Ebola scare, the average citizen did not over-react to the risk. This flat reaction was unexpected given the well-known availability heuristic-people tend to over-weigh judgments of events more heavily toward more recent information. In contrast, the average citizen continued to value pandemic risk less relative to terrorism or environmental risk.