Spatiotemporal patterns of malaria incidence in northern Thailand
Spatiotemporal patterns of malaria incidence in northern Thailand
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DOI：
10.1016/j.trstmh.2005.09.011
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发表时间：
2006-07-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Boots, M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Childs, D. Z.;Cattadori, I. M.;Boots, M.
我们对泰国北部疟疾发病率的长期时间序列进行了详细分析。从 1977 年到 2002 年，该地区 13 个省每月都记录到恶性疟原虫和间日疟原虫阳性病例。时间序列统计方法用于检查区域和省级疟疾发病率的长期趋势和季节性动态。皆疟疾。除了与缅甸接壤的两个省份外，整个地区的种类都在减少。自 20 世纪 80 年代末以来，该地区间日疟原虫的下降速度有所下降，这可能是抗药性产生或病媒势发生变化的信号。这两个物种都表现出双峰年度季节性，这可能归因于病媒出现模式、耕作方式和个体跨国界迁徙。近年来，在一些省份，第一个季节性高峰的重要性有所增加，这可能是由于病媒密度的增加。两个物种的中期波动都表现出清晰的空间组织。有一些证据表明恶性疟原虫有一个微妙的接近 4 年的超级年周期，我们认为这是由与该地区气候相关的外在因素驱动的。 (C) 2005 年皇家热带医学和卫生学会。由爱思唯尔有限公司出版。保留所有权利。
We present a detailed analysis of long-term time series of malaria incidence in northern Thailand. Positive cases for Plasmodium falciparum and P vivax have been recorded monthly from 1977-2002 at 13 provinces in the region. Time series statistical methods are used to examine the long-term trends and seasonal dynamics of malaria incidence at regional and provincial scales. Both malarial. types are declining throughout the region, except in the two provinces that share a large border with Myanmar. The rate of decline in P vivax has decreased ross the region since the end of the 1980s, and this may be a signal of developing resistance or changing vector potential. Both species display a two-peak annual seasonality that may be attributed to patterns of vector occurrence, farming practice and migration of individuals across international borders. In a number of provinces, the importance of the first seasonal peak has grown in recent years, possibly owing to increases in vector densities. The medium-term fluctuations of both species exhibit a clear spatial organisation. There is some evidence of a subtle close to 4-year super annual cycle in P falciparum, which we suggest is driven by extrinsic factors relating to the climate of the region. (C) 2005 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.