Tension of Agricultural Land and Water Use in China's Trade: Tele-Connections, Hidden Drivers and Potential Solutions
Tension of Agricultural Land and Water Use in China's Trade: Tele-Connections, Hidden Drivers and Potential Solutions
复制标题
DOI：
10.1021/acs.est.0c00256
复制
发表时间：
2020-05-05
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Liu, Yu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cai, Beiming;Hubacek, Klaus;Liu, Yu
区域间贸易有可能将稀缺资源的管理延伸到沿着供应链以外的区域。本文将多区域投入产出模型与结构分解分析相结合，揭示了中国农业土地和水资源利用的遥远联系及其变化背后的驱动因素。研究结果表明，从2002年到2012年，贸易体现的农业土地利用增加了2.3倍和2.5倍的虚拟农业用水流量。中国缺水的北方地区拥有丰富的农业用地，是虚拟（也称贸易体现）农业用地和水资源的主要输出地。此外，虚拟用水进口国和出口国的作用取决于是否有土地，而不是水资源。通过情景分析发现，如果华北地区农业水资源利用效率达到世界最高水平，而农业土地利用效率保持不变，则虚拟水流量将减少32%，只有水资源而不是农业土地才能维持未来的经济发展。本文的研究结果可为从水-陆关系角度解决中国区域水资源短缺问题提供重要信息。
Interregional trade can potentially extend the management of scarce resources beyond a region's territory along supply chains. Here we combined the multiregional input-output model with structural decomposition analysis to reveal the distant connections of agricultural land and water use as well as the drivers behind their variations in China. Our results show that trade-embodied agricultural land use increase by 2.3-fold and 2.5-fold for virtual agricultural water use flows from 2002 to 2012. The water-starved northern China with abundant agricultural land is the main exporter of virtual (also called trade-embodied) agricultural land and water. Moreover, the role of the virtual water use importers and exporters were determined by the availability of land, rather than water resources. Based on scenario analysis, we found that if agricultural water use efficiency of north China reached the world's toplevel but agricultural land use efficiency remained unchanged, the virtual water flows would be reduced by 32% and only water resources, not agricultural land, would be able to sustain future economic development. Our findings may provide significant information for potential solutions to China's regional water shortage from a land-water nexus perspective.