The potential of integrated population modelling
The potential of integrated population modelling
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-842x.2005.00370.x
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发表时间：
2005-03-01
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Morgan, BJT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Besbeas, P;Freeman, SN;Morgan, BJT
最近的工作表明，卡尔曼滤波可以用来为野生动物普查和标记-重新捕获-恢复数据的综合分析提供一个简单的框架。该方法已被应用于一系列鸟类、苏伊羊和灰海豹的数据。本文回顾了该方法的基本思想，并通过一系列新的数据应用表明了该方法的潜力。在过去的20年里，英国对保护鸟类的保护兴趣一直在下降。本文分析了一个国家指数以及各个站点的数据；它寻找与数量开始下降相对应的生产力的变化点，考虑如何选择合适的协变量，并比较不同生境之间的生产力。新的程序可以单独实施，也可以合并实施。
Recent work has shown how the Kalman filter can be used to provide a simple framework for the integrated analysis of wild animal census and mark-recapture-recovery data. The approach has been applied to data on a range of bird species, on Soay sheep and on grey seals. This paper reviews the basic ideas, and then indicates the potential of the method through a series of new applications to data on the northern lapwing, a species of conservation interest that has been in decline in Britain for the past 20 years. The paper analyses a national index, as well as data from individual sites; it looks for a change-point in productivity, corresponding to the start of the decline in numbers, considers how to select appropriate covariates, and compares productivity between different habitats. The new procedures can be applied singly or in combination.