Adapting afforestation patterns considering their local biogeophysical induced cooling and warming
Adapting afforestation patterns considering their local biogeophysical induced cooling and warming
复制标题
考虑当地生物地球物理引起的降温和变暖，调整造林模式
DOI：
10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9237
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
A. Popp
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Windisch;Florian Humpenöder;A. Popp
<p>预计Affiliate将在应对气候变化方面发挥关键作用。各国根据《巴黎协定》承诺的减排量的四分之一将由新建立的森林提供。低排放情景同样严重依赖陆基减缓方案，以便在本世纪内从大气中清除数百亿吨二氧化碳。这种陆地覆盖的广泛变化将通过改变地表蒸发量和蒸散量对气候产生地球物理影响。这些BGP过程大多是缺席的土地使用的综合评估模型的组成部分，目前只侧重于碳固存。因此，他们的造林前景没有考虑到当地BGP引起的冷却或变暖，无论是增强或抵消的缓解努力。忽视BGP过程可能导致根据森林的位置低估或高估植树造林的好处。在最坏的情况下，它甚至冒着在新森林会使气候变暖的地区植树造林的风险。我们将基于观测的BGP造林效果的估计纳入土地利用模型MAGPIE（农业生产及其对环境的影响模型）。MAgPIE是一个以农业生产成本为驱动的土地利用优化模型。它为一系列气候（代表性集中路径）和社会（共享社会经济路径）发展提供了成本最优的土地利用模式，并已被用于调查造林和森林保护作为缓解方案。我们通过使用当地气候敏感性将BGP引起的局部变冷或变暖转化为碳当量度量，并将其添加到碳封存的缓解效益中。考虑局地变冷或变暖的影响，可提高或降低造林的减缓激励。因此，该模型将能够内生地判断造林决策，其固碳潜力和BGP的影响。我们将报告的变化，造林模式施加考虑其组合BGP和地球化学效应。</p>
<p>Afforestation is expected to take on a key role in the fight against climate change. A quarter of the emission reductions pledged by countries under the Paris Agreement are to be provided by newly established forests. Low emission scenarios equally rely heavily on land-based mitigation options to remove hundreds of gigatons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere within this century. This proposed extensive change of the terrestrial land-cover will exert a biogeophysical (BGP) impact on climate by altering the surface albedo as well as the evapotranspiration capacity. These BGP processes are mostly absent in the land-use components of Integrated Assessment Models which currently only focus on carbon sequestration. Hence, their afforestation prospect does not take into account the local BGP induced cooling or warming that either enhances or counteracts the mitigation effort. Neglecting BGP processes can lead to under- or overestimating the benefits of afforestation depending on the location of the forest. In the worst case it even risks proposing afforestation in regions where new forests would warm the climate. We incorporate observation-based estimates of the BGP effect of afforestation into the land-use model MAgPIE (Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment). MAgPIE is a land-use optimization model driven by the cost of agricultural production. It produces cost optimal land-use patterns for a set of climatic (Representative Concentration Pathways) and societal (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) developments and has already been used to investigate afforestation and forest protection as mitigation options. We translate the BGP induced local cooling or warming to a carbon equivalent metric by using the local climate sensitivity and add it to the mitigation benefit of carbon sequestration. The mitigation incentive for afforestation will be enhanced or reduced by considering the local cooling or warming. Hence, the model will be able to endogenously judge afforestation decisions regarding both their carbon sequestration potential and BGP impact. We will report the changes in afforestation patterns imposed by considering their combined BGP and biogeochemical effects.</p>