Impact of Sales Promotions on when, what, and how Much to Buy
Impact of Sales Promotions on when, what, and how Much to Buy
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DOI：
10.1177/002224378802500402
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发表时间：
1988-11
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Sunil Gupta
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sunil Gupta
促销活动的有效性可以通过将促销期间的销售“颠簸”分解为由于品牌转换、购买时间加速和库存而导致的销售增长来检查。作者提出了这样一个分解的方法，即品牌销售被认为是消费者决定什么时候，什么，买多少的结果。营销变量对这三个消费者决策的影响是由Erlang-2互购时间模型，品牌选择的多项logit模型，和购买数量的累积logit模型。这些模型是用IRI扫描仪面板数据对普通咖啡粉进行估计的。结果表明，超过84%的销售增长，由于促销来自品牌转换（其中很小的一部分可能是不同大小的同一品牌之间的切换）。及时购买的加速占销售增长的不到14%，而促销导致的库存是一个可以忽略不计的现象，占销售增长的不到2%。
The effectiveness of a sales promotion can be examined by decomposing the sales “bump” during the promotion period into sales increase due to brand switching, purchase time acceleration, and stockpiling. The author proposes a method for such a decomposition whereby brand sales are considered the result of consumer decisions about when, what, and how much to buy. The impact of marketing variables on these three consumer decisions is captured by an Erlang-2 interpurchase time model, a multinomial logit model of brand choice, and a cumulative logit model of purchase quantity. The models are estimated with IRI scanner panel data for regular ground coffee. The results indicate that more than 84% of the sales increase due to promotion comes from brand switching (a very small part of which may be switching between different sizes of the same brand). Purchase acceleration in time accounts for less than 14% of the sales increase, whereas stockpiling due to promotion is a negligible phenomenon accounting for less than 2% of the sales increase.