Detectable signals of episodic risk effects on acute HIV transmission: strategies for analyzing transmission systems using genetic data.
Detectable signals of episodic risk effects on acute HIV transmission: strategies for analyzing transmission systems using genetic data.
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可检测的情节风险影响对急性HIV传播的影响：使用遗传数据分析传输系统的策略。
DOI：
10.1016/j.epidem.2012.11.003
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发表时间：
2013-03
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Koopman, James S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alam, Shah Jamal;Zhang, Xinyu;Romero-Severson, Ethan Obie;Henry, Christopher;Zhong, Lin;Volz, Erik M.;Brenner, Bluma G.;Koopman, James S.
间歇性高危性行为很常见，对艾滋病毒传播有深远影响。在男男性行为者（MSM）之间的艾滋病毒传播模型中，改变高危事件的频率、持续时间和接触率可以使地方流行率从零上升到50%，并使急性艾滋病毒感染（AHI）期间的传播增加一倍以上。无针对性的测试和治疗可能是无效的，在存在强烈的偶发风险效应。在这些条件下，使用各种控制选项的合作伙伴服务方法可能会产生更好的效果，但问题仍然存在：如果人群正在经历偶发性风险影响，什么数据会显示？来自蒙特利尔的HIV序列数据揭示了遗传簇，其大小分布随时间推移而稳定，并反映了急性感染爆发（AIO）的大小分布。监测提供了补充的行为数据。为了有效地使用这两种类型的数据，它是必不可少的，以检查影响的偶发风险的影响和形状的传输树模型的方面。作为一个示范，我们使用一个确定性房室模型的情节风险，探讨在地方病平衡的急性HIV感染（AHI）的传播分数的决定因素。我们使用相应的个人为基础的模型来观察AIO的大小分布和模式内AIO的传输。事件风险参数确定是否AHI传播树有更长的链，更集群的传输从单个个体，或这些不同的混合进行了探讨。令人鼓舞的参数估计，AIO大小分布反映了不同参数集急性感染的传播频率。我们的结果表明，情景风险动态影响急性感染爆发的规模和持续时间，从而提供了遗传簇大小分布和情景风险动态之间可能的联系。
Episodic high-risk sexual behavior is common and can have a profound effect on HIV transmission. In a model of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM), changing the frequency, duration and contact rates of high-risk episodes can take endemic prevalence from zero to 50% and more than double transmissions during acute HIV infection (AHI). Undirected test and treat could be inefficient in the presence of strong episodic risk effects. Partner services approaches that use a variety of control options will be likely to have better effects under these conditions, but the question remains: What data will reveal if a population is experiencing episodic risk effects? HIV sequence data from Montreal reveals genetic clusters whose size distribution stabilizes over time and reflects the size distribution of acute infection outbreaks (AIOs). Surveillance provides complementary behavioral data. In order to use both types of data efficiently, it is essential to examine aspects of models that affect both the episodic risk effects and the shape of transmission trees. As a demonstration, we use a deterministic compartmental model of episodic risk to explore the determinants of the fraction of transmissions during acute HIV infection (AHI) at the endemic equilibrium. We use a corresponding individual-based model to observe AIO size distributions and patterns of transmission within AIO. Episodic risk parameters determining whether AHI transmission trees had longer chains, more clustered transmissions from single individuals, or different mixes of these were explored. Encouragingly for parameter estimation, AIO size distributions reflected the frequency of transmissions from acute infection across divergent parameter sets. Our results show that episodic risk dynamics influence both the size and duration of acute infection outbreaks, thus providing a possible link between genetic cluster size distributions and episodic risk dynamics.
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影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Leventhal GE;Kouyos R;Stadler T;Wyl Vv;Yerly S;Böni J;Cellerai C;Klimkait T;Günthard HF;Bonhoeffer S
通讯作者：
Bonhoeffer S
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.022618299
发表时间：
2002-02-05
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Murray, M
通讯作者：
Murray, M
影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Prosperi MC;Ciccozzi M;Fanti I;Saladini F;Pecorari M;Borghi V;Di Giambenedetto S;Bruzzone B;Capetti A;Vivarelli A;Rusconi S;Re MC;Gismondo MR;Sighinolfi L;Gray RR;Salemi M;Zazzi M;De Luca A;ARCA collaborative group
通讯作者：
ARCA collaborative group
DOI：
10.1097/ede.0b013e3181e9e901
发表时间：
2010-09
期刊：
Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Alam SJ;Romero-Severson E;Kim JH;Emond G;Koopman JS
通讯作者：
Koopman JS
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
JACQUEZ, JA;GREIF, P
通讯作者：
GREIF, P