Has climate change driven urbanization in Africa?
Has climate change driven urbanization in Africa?
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.09.001
复制
发表时间：
2017-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Deichmann U
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Henderson JV;Storeygard A;Deichmann U
这篇论文记录了撒哈拉以南非洲的大量地区和城市在气候和城市化之间强有力但有区别的联系，这些地区和城市在过去50年里基本上枯竭了。异质性的关键维度是，城市是否有可能将制造业出口到其区域以外，而不是仅仅是为农业腹地提供当地服务的集镇。在城市可能成为制造业中心的地区(占我们样本的25%)，更干燥的条件会促进城市化和城市总收入。在那里，城市移民提供了一种“逃避”负面农业水分冲击的方式。然而，在剩下的集镇(我们样本的75%)，城市只是为农业服务。负面冲击导致的农业收入减少减少了对城市服务的需求，也减少了对城市劳动力的需求。在那里，干旱对城市化或城市总收入几乎没有影响。非洲缺乏结构转型，阻碍了对气候变化的更好反应。
This paper documents strong but differentiated links between climate and urbanization in large panels of districts and cities in Sub-Saharan Africa, which has dried substantially in the past fifty years. The key dimension of heterogeneity is whether cities are likely to have manufacturing for export outside their regions, as opposed to being exclusively market towns providing local services to agricultural hinterlands. In regions where cities are likely to be manufacturing centers (25% of our sample), drier conditions increase urbanization and total urban incomes. There, urban migration provides an “escape” from negative agricultural moisture shocks. However, in the remaining market towns (75% of our sample), cities just service agriculture. Reduced farm incomes from negative shocks reduce demand for urban services and derived demand for urban labor. There, drying has little impact on urbanization or total urban incomes. Lack of structural transformation in Africa inhibits a better response to climate change.