Economic consequence analysis of electric power infrastructure disruptions: General equilibrium approaches
Economic consequence analysis of electric power infrastructure disruptions: General equilibrium approaches
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104756
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发表时间：
2020-06
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
I. Wing;A. Rose
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
I. Wing;A. Rose
我们开发了一个程式化的两部门分析一般均衡模型，该模型阐明了对广泛的、长期的电力中断的调整机制。代数解决方案通过生产者和消费者的投入可替代性以及对备份基础设施容量的缓解投资来说明弹性对于缓解整个经济的停电成本的相对重要性。使用分析模型和计算一般均衡模型模拟两周停电对加州湾区经济的影响，得出的福利损失远小于对支付意愿的偏好估计。结果凸显了复原力在缓解能源供应冲击后果方面的作用。
We develop a stylized two-sector analytical general equilibrium model that elucidates mechanisms of adjustment to widespread, long-duration electric power disruptions. Algebraic solutions illustrate the relative importance of resilience through producer and consumer input substitutability and mitigation investment in backup infrastructure capacity in moderating the economy-wide costs of outages. Simulations of the impacts of a two-week power outage on California's Bay Area economy using both the analytical model and a computational general equilibrium model yield welfare losses that are substantially smaller than stated-preference estimates of willingness to pay. Results highlight the role of resilience in moderating consequences of energy supply shocks.