Probabilistic Characterization of Undrained Shear Strength Using Liquidity Index
Probabilistic Characterization of Undrained Shear Strength Using Liquidity Index
复制标题
使用流动性指数对不排水抗剪强度进行概率表征
DOI：
10.1061/9780784480731.003
复制
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Yu Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Z. Cao;Yu Wang
本文利用有限的流动性指数（LI）数据，对粘土的不排水抗剪强度Suof进行概率表征。所提出的贝叶斯方法包括两个主要组成部分：贝叶斯模型比较方法，其在若干候选者中选择用于SU的概率表征的模型;以及贝叶斯等效样本方法，其采用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗模拟（MCMCS）来基于先验知识（例如，工程判断/当地经验）和项目特定的LI数据。然后执行等同样本的常规统计分析以估计统计量（例如，平均值和标准差）。所提出的方法进行了说明和验证，使用模拟从虚拟粘土网站在一系列的敏感性研究的数据。结果表明，该方法能够正确识别SU的概率特征模型，并基于先验知识和有限的项目特定LI数据提供合理的SU分布统计量，随着所用测试数据数量的增加，估计统计量的准确性提高.
This paper develops Bayesian approaches for probabilistic characterization of the undrained shear strengthSuof clay using limited project-specific liquidity index (LI) data. The proposed Bayesian approaches include two major components: a Bayesian model comparison approach that selects a model for probabilistic characterization ofSuamong several candidates and a Bayesian equivalent sample approach that employs Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMCS) to generate a large number, as many as needed, of equivalent samples of theSuprofile based on both prior knowledge (e.g., engineering judgment/local experience) and project-specificLIdata. Conventional statistical analysis of the equivalent samples is then carried out to estimate statistics (e.g., mean and standard deviation) of theSuprofile. The proposed approaches are illustrated and validated using theLIdata simulated from a virtual clay site in a series of sensitivity studies. The results show that the proposed approaches properly identify the correct model for probabilistic characterization ofSuand provide reasonable statistics of theSuprofile based on prior knowledge and limited project-specificLIdata.The accuracy of the estimated statistics improves as the number of test data used in the proposed approaches increases.
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Y. Honjo;Y. Kikuchi;M. Shirato
通讯作者：
Y. Honjo;Y. Kikuchi;M. Shirato