Agricultural growth and inter-sectoral linkages in a developing economy
Agricultural growth and inter-sectoral linkages in a developing economy
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1477-9552.2000.tb01236.x
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发表时间：
2000-09-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Mathew, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gemmell, N;Lloyd, TA;Mathew, M
一个经济体的制造业部门的增长是否对农业产生溢出效应，或者各部门只有在有共同的外部刺激时才有类似的增长率？对这一问题进行的数量有限的跨部门国家调查发现了一些有利于外溢效应的证据，尽管所使用的方法无法轻易区分相关性和因果关系。将Feder（1982）的部门外部性模型应用于时间序列背景，我们研究了马来西亚农业产出受到部门间溢出影响的程度。我们的研究结果表明，制造业产出的扩张，虽然在短期内与农业产出的减少有关，但从长期来看，与农业扩张有关。另一方面，从短期和长期来看，服务业产出的增长似乎对农业增长都是有害的，而因果关系检验支持溢出效应而不是“共同原因”：部门生产率的证据与新古典主义的论点一致，表明制造业生产率提高的好处往往会使农业技术化，鼓励生产率趋同。
Does growth in the manufacturing sector of an economy spillover to agriculture, or do sectors share similar growth rates only when they share some common exogenous stimuli? The limited number of investigations of this issue, for cross-sections of countries, have found some evidence in favour of spillovers though the methodologies used cannot readily separate correlation from causation. Adapting the Feder (1982) model of sectoral externalities to a time-series context, we examine how far agricultural output in Malaysia has been affected by inter-sectoral spillovers. Our results suggest that expansion of manufacturing output, though associated with red reduced agricultural output in the short-run, is associated with agricultural expansion over the long-run. Sec-vice output growth on the other hand seems to have been inimical to agricultural growth in both the short- and long runs, while causality testing supports the case for spillovers rather than "common causes': Evidence on sectoral productivity is consistent with neoclassical arguments suggesting that the benefits of higher productivity in manufacturing tend to skill over to agriculture, encouraging productivity convergence.