Wind speed trends over the contiguous United States
Wind speed trends over the contiguous United States
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DOI：
10.1029/2008jd011416
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发表时间：
2009-07
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Pryor;R. Barthelmie;D. Young;E. Takle;R. Arritt;D. Flory;W. Gutowski;A. Nunes;J. Roads
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文献类型：
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作者：
S. Pryor;R. Barthelmie;D. Young;E. Takle;R. Arritt;D. Flory;W. Gutowski;A. Nunes;J. Roads
[1]基于两个观测数据集、四个再分析数据集和两个区域气候模式（RCMs）的输出，对美国邻近地区的历史风速趋势进行了全面的相互比较。因此，这项研究有助于检测，量化和归因于历史/当代气候中风速的时间趋势，并提供了用于开发未来风速情景的RCM评估。假设风气候的变化部分是由全球气候系统的变率和演变驱动的，这种变化应该在直接观测、再分析产品和区域气候模型中表现出来。然而，从观测风速数据、再分析产品和区域气候模型得出的时间趋势存在很大差异。这两个观测数据集都表现出压倒性的优势趋势下降值的第50和第90百分位数和年平均风速，这也是使用MM 5与NCEP-2边界条件进行模拟的情况。然而，在北美区域再分析、其他全球再分析（NCEP-1和ERA-40）和区域谱模式的输出中，可以看到匡威的趋势。同样，年平均风速变化与年际变率之间的关系在不同的数据集之间并不一致。NCEP-1和NARR表现出一定的趋势下降（增加）的年平均风速与减少（增加）的年际变率，但这不是考虑的其他数据集的情况。从分析的八个数据源的时间趋势的差异的可能原因。
[1] A comprehensive intercomparison of historical wind speed trends over the contiguous United States is presented based on two observational data sets, four reanalysis data sets, and output from two regional climate models (RCMs). This research thus contributes to detection, quantification, and attribution of temporal trends in wind speeds within the historical/contemporary climate and provides an evaluation of the RCMs being used to develop future wind speed scenarios. Under the assumption that changes in wind climates are partly driven by variability and evolution of the global climate system, such changes should be manifest in direct observations, reanalysis products, and RCMs. However, there are substantial differences in temporal trends derived from observational wind speed data, reanalysis products, and RCMs. The two observational data sets both exhibit an overwhelming dominance of trends toward declining values of the 50th and 90th percentile and annual mean wind speeds, which is also the case for simulations conducted using MM5 with NCEP-2 boundary conditions. However, converse trends are seen in output from the North American Regional Reanalysis, other global reanalyses (NCEP-1 and ERA-40), and the Regional Spectral Model. Equally, the relationship between changing annual mean wind speed and interannual variability is not consistent among the different data sets. NCEP-1 and NARR exhibit some tendency toward declining (increasing) annual mean wind speeds being associated with decreased (increased) interannual variability, but this is not the case for the other data sets considered. Possible causes of the differences in temporal trends from the eight data sources analyzed are provided.