Potential impacts of industrial structure on energy consumption and CO2 emission: a case study of Beijing
Potential impacts of industrial structure on energy consumption and CO2 emission: a case study of Beijing
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.06.011
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发表时间：
2015-09-15
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Wei, Yi-Ming
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mi, Zhi-Fu;Pan, Su-Yan;Wei, Yi-Ming
在投入产出模型的基础上，建立了产业结构对能源消耗和二氧化碳排放潜在影响的优化模型。并将该方法应用于北京市产业结构调整的实例研究。结果表明，产业结构调整具有巨大的节能减排潜力。在2010 - 2020年GDP年均增长率为8.29%的情况下，2020年北京市产业结构调整可节约能源39.42%（5006万吨标准煤当量），减少二氧化碳排放46.06%（9631万吨）。其次，北京最好努力发展几个低能源密集型和低碳密集型行业，如信息传输、计算机服务和软件、金融。第三，通过合理的产业结构调整，可以在不影响经济增长的前提下降低能源强度。四个;与“强度目标”相比，“总量目标”在节能减排方面更有效，但对经济增长的负面影响要大得多。因此，需要在“总量目标”和“强度目标”之间进行平衡。(C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
An optimization model is developed based on the Input Output model to assess the potential impacts of industrial structure on the energy consumption and CO2 emission. The method is applied to a case study of industrial structure adjustment in Beijing, China. Results demonstrate that industrial structure adjustment has great potential of energy conservation and carbon reduction. When the average annual growth rate of GDP is 8.29% from 2010 to 2020, industrial structure adjustment can save energy by 39.42% (50.06 million tons of standard coal equivalent), and reduce CO2 emission by 46.06% (96.31 million tons) in Beijing in 2020. Second, Beijing had better strive to develop several low energy intensive and low carbon intensive sectors, such as information transmission, computer service and software, and finance. Third, energy intensity is possible to decrease without negatively affecting economic growth by reasonable industrial structure adjustment. Four; compared to "intensity targets", "total amount targets" are more effective on the energy conservation and carbon reduction, but have much greater negative effects on economic growth. Therefore, it needs to be balanced between "total amount targets" and "intensity targets". (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.