Estimating fish population abundance by integrating quantitative data on environmental DNA and hydrodynamic modelling
Estimating fish population abundance by integrating quantitative data on environmental DNA and hydrodynamic modelling
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通过整合环境DNA定量数据与水动力模型来估算鱼类种群数量
DOI：
10.1111/mec.15530
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发表时间：
2020-07-20
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Kondoh, Michio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fukaya, Keiichi;Murakami, Hiroaki;Kondoh, Michio
对环境中残留的DNA进行分子分析，称为环境DNA（eDNA），已被证明是推断物种发生的一种强大且具有成本效益的方法。尽管如此，有关测量eDNA浓度的人口丰度仍然很困难，因为详细的知识，管理的空间和时间分布的eDNA的过程中，应整合重建的基本分布和丰度的目标物种。在这项研究中，我们提出了一个总体框架的基础上，空间复制测量的eDNA的水生系统的丰度估计。所提出的方法明确占的生产，运输和降解的eDNA，利用数值流体动力学模型，可以模拟分布的eDNA浓度在一个水生区域。事实证明，在某些假设下，人口丰度可以通过广义线性模型的贝叶斯推断来估计。应用于日本竹荚鱼（Trachurus）人口舞鹤湾显示，所提出的方法给出了一个估计的人口丰度的定量回声测深仪方法。此外，该方法成功地确定了外源性输入的eDNA的来源（鱼市场），这可能会使eDNA的定量应用难以解释，除非它的影响被考虑在内。这些研究结果表明，eDNA可靠地反映水生大型生物的人口丰度的能力，当“eDNA的生态”充分占，人口丰度可以量化的基础上测量的eDNA浓度。
Molecular analysis of DNA left in the environment, known as environmental DNA (eDNA), has proven to be a powerful and cost-effective approach to infer occurrence of species. Nonetheless, relating measurements of eDNA concentration to population abundance remains difficult because detailed knowledge on the processes that govern spatial and temporal distribution of eDNA should be integrated to reconstruct the underlying distribution and abundance of a target species. In this study, we propose a general framework of abundance estimation for aquatic systems on the basis of spatially replicated measurements of eDNA. The proposed method explicitly accounts for production, transport and degradation of eDNA by utilizing numerical hydrodynamic models that can simulate the distribution of eDNA concentrations within an aquatic area. It turns out that, under certain assumptions, population abundance can be estimated via a Bayesian inference of a generalized linear model. Application to a Japanese jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) population in Maizuru Bay revealed that the proposed method gives an estimate of population abundance comparable to that of a quantitative echo sounder method. Furthermore, the method successfully identified a source of exogenous input of eDNA (a fish market), which may render a quantitative application of eDNA difficult to interpret unless its effect is taken into account. These findings indicate the ability of eDNA to reliably reflect population abundance of aquatic macroorganisms; when the "ecology of eDNA" is adequately accounted for, population abundance can be quantified on the basis of measurements of eDNA concentration.