HIV Testing and Subjective Expectations in Rural Malawi
HIV Testing and Subjective Expectations in Rural Malawi
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马拉维农村地区的艾滋病毒检测和主观期望
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
H. Kohler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Adeline Delavande;H. Kohler
在撒哈拉以南非洲，约有6.1%的成年人感染了艾滋病毒/艾滋病，在一些国家艾滋病毒感染率达到30%。因此，旨在遏制这一流行病的政策至关重要。自愿艾滋病咨询和检测（VCT）计划往往是国家艾滋病预防战略的一部分，在许多情况下，是艾滋病控制计划的关键组成部分。这种自愿咨询和检测的推出主要是因为有人声称，告知个人其艾滋病毒状况可以消除对自己-以及在信息共享的情况下-家庭成员艾滋病毒状况的不确定性，而且个人随后会从事风险较低的行为或采取预防措施，以减少进一步传播病毒的风险。然而，关于VCT在减少艾滋病毒传播或危险行为方面的有效性的现有经验证据是混合的（例如Joseph Matovu等人，2005年）。VCT对行为缺乏影响的一个潜在原因可能是测试不会导致对自己感染状况的持续更准确的主观信念。在本文中，我们调查这种可能性，通过使用独特的数据对艾滋病毒感染的概率主观期望，我们已经收集了在农村马拉维的受访者谁曾接受过艾滋病毒检测。我们发现不同的影响测试艾滋病毒的状态。一方面，大多数被告知艾滋病毒呈阳性的人并不总是认为自己受到了感染。另一方面，那些得知自己是HIV阴性的人随后会有HIV预期，这反映了（i）他们相信他们的测试结果，（ii）他们考虑到他们的性行为（以及他们的伴侣之一），因为测试修改了他们对当前感染的预期。感谢Chuck Manski的评论。
About 6.1% of the adults living in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are infected with HIV/AIDS, with HIV prevalence reaching 30% in some countries. Policies aiming at curtailing the epidemic are thus crucial. Voluntary HIV Counseling and Testing (VCT) programs are often part of national AIDS prevention strategies, and in many cases a key component of AIDS control programs. This roll-out of VCT is mostly driven by claims that informing individuals about their HIV status eliminates uncertainty about own – and, to the extent that information is shared – also family members' HIV status, and that individuals subsequently engage in less risky behavior or take precautions to reduce the risk of further sharing the virus. Yet, the existing empirical evidence on the effectiveness of VCT in reducing HIV transmission or risky behavior is mixed (e.g. Joseph Matovu et al., 2005). One potential reason for the lack of effect of VCT on behavior could be that testing does not result in persistently more accurate subjective beliefs about one's own infection status. In this paper, we investigate this possibility by using unique data on probabilistic subjective expectations about HIV infection that we have collected in rural Malawi from respondents who had been previously tested for HIV. We find differential effects of testing by HIV status. On the one hand, most of the individuals who are told they are HIV-positive do not persistently believe they are infected. On the other hand, individuals who learn they are HIV-negative have subsequent HIV expectations that reflect that (i) they believe their test result and (ii) they take into account their sexual behavior (and the one of their partners) since testing to revise their expectations about current infection.). We thank Chuck Manski for comments.