Uncertainty analysis comes to integrated assessment models for climate change ... and conversely
Uncertainty analysis comes to integrated assessment models for climate change ... and conversely
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-012-0634-y
复制
发表时间：
2013-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Cooke, Roger M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cooke, Roger M.
本文追溯了三代不确定性分析的发展，其间穿插了核领域的大量方法学投资。在非常高的合法化负担的推动下，这些投资旨在加强不确定性量化的科学基础。第一代反应堆安全性研究在不确定性传播中引入了结构化的专家判断，并区分了可变性和不确定性。第二代出现在模拟反应堆容器破裂后反应堆安全壳建筑内部的物理过程中。阐述了不确定度量化的操作定义和专家判断。第三代是在模拟放射性释放和通过生物圈运输的后果方面发展起来的。专家性能评估，依赖启发和概率反演是其中的标志。第三代方法可以在当前的气候变化综合评估模型（IAM）中得到有益的应用。相关性建模和概率反演的可能应用进行了概述。这些方法不可能完全足以对气候变化的影响进行定量的不确定性分析，倒数第二节展望了第四代方法。
This article traces the development of uncertainty analysis through three generations punctuated by large methodology investments in the nuclear sector. Driven by a very high perceived legitimation burden, these investments aimed at strengthening the scientific basis of uncertainty quantification. The first generation building off the Reactor Safety Study introduced structured expert judgment in uncertainty propagation and distinguished variability and uncertainty. The second generation emerged in modeling the physical processes inside the reactor containment building after breach of the reactor vessel. Operational definitions and expert judgment for uncertainty quantification were elaborated. The third generation developed in modeling the consequences of release of radioactivity and transport through the biosphere. Expert performance assessment, dependence elicitation and probabilistic inversion are among the hallmarks. Third generation methods may be profitably employed in current Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of climate change. Possible applications of dependence modeling and probabilistic inversion are sketched. It is unlikely that these methods will be fully adequate for quantitative uncertainty analyses of the impacts of climate change, and a penultimate section looks ahead to fourth generation methods.