Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Euro Area
Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Euro Area
复制标题
欧元区货币和财政政策的相互作用
DOI：
10.1007/s10633-004-1076-1
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
Wenlang Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
W. Semmler;Wenlang Zhang
货币政策和财政政策的相互作用问题是欧元区的一个重要问题，因为欧洲货币联盟的各个成员国对自己的财政政策负责，而货币政策则由一个单一的货币当局欧洲央行负责。本文关注的是欧元区货币和财政政策相互作用的经验证据。我们首先探索财政制度与VAR模型，并找到经验证据表明，非里夏尔财政政策已在法国和德国推行。作为一个例子，我们然后研究了欧洲货币联盟的一个成员国，即意大利，是如何回应其财政政策的共同货币政策，发现意大利的财政政策似乎是反作用的共同货币政策在1979年和1998年之间。为了研究货币政策和财政政策的相互作用，在一个更一般的方式，我们探讨了随时间变化的相互作用，估计状态空间模型与马尔可夫转换的一些欧元区国家。法国和德国的货币和财政政策互动似乎出现了一些制度变化，但两种政策之间的互动并不强烈。而且，这两项政策并不是相互促进的，而是相互抵消的。最后，我们探讨了政策互动中的前瞻性行为，发现预期似乎并没有在政策设计中发挥重要作用。
The problem of monetary and fiscal policy interactions is an important issue for the euro area, since the individual member states of the EMU are responsible for their fiscal policies but monetary policy is pursued by a single monetary authority, the ECB. This paper is concerned with empirical evidence on monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the euro area. We first explore fiscal regimes with a VAR model and find empirical evidence that a non-Ricardian fiscal policy has been pursued in both France and Germany. As an example, we then study how one member state of the EMU, namely, Italy, is responding to the common monetary policy with its fiscal policy and find that Italian fiscal policy seemed to be counteractive to the common monetary policy between 1979 and 1998. In order to study monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a more general way, we explore time-varying interactions by estimating a State-Space model with Markov-switching for some Euro-area countries. There appear to be some regime changes in monetary and fiscal policy interactions in France and Germany, but the interactions between the two policies are not strong. Moreover, the two policies have not been accommodative but counteractive to each other. Finally we explore forward-looking behavior in policy interactions and find that expectations do not seem to have played an important role in the policy designs.