Evaluating the predictiveness of a continuous marker
Evaluating the predictiveness of a continuous marker
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1541-0420.2007.00814.x
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发表时间：
2007-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Feng, Ziding
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang, Ying;Pepe, Margaret Sullivan;Feng, Ziding
考虑预测二元结果的连续标记。例如，前列腺特异性抗原的血清浓度可用于计算在活检中发现前列腺癌的风险。在这篇文章中，我们认为，一个标记的预测能力与人口分布的风险给标记，并建议一个图形工具，预测曲线，显示这种分布。显示屏提供了一个通用的有意义的标度，用于比较在其原始标度上可能无法比较的标记。一些现有的措施的预测性所示的总结指数来自预测性曲线。我们开发的方法，使预测曲线的推断，两条曲线之间的逐点比较，并评估协变量的影响。癌症和囊性纤维化的风险预测标志物的应用进行了讨论。
Consider a continuous marker for predicting a binary outcome. For example, the serum concentration of prostate specific antigen may be used to calculate the risk of finding prostate cancer in a biopsy. In this article, we argue that the predictive capacity of a marker has to do with the population distribution of risk given the marker and suggest a graphical tool, the predictiveness curve, that displays this distribution. The display provides a common meaningful scale for comparing markers that may not be comparable on their original scales. Some existing measures of predictiveness are shown to be summary indices derived from the predictiveness curve. We develop methods for making inference about the predictiveness curve, for making pointwise comparisons between two curves, and for evaluating covariate effects. Applications to risk prediction markers in cancer and cystic fibrosis are discussed.