Spatial pattern and determinants of migrant workers' interprovincial hukou transfer intention in China: Evidence from a National Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey in 2016
Spatial pattern and determinants of migrant workers' interprovincial hukou transfer intention in China: Evidence from a National Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey in 2016
复制标题
中国农民工跨省户口转移意愿的空间格局及影响因素——来自2016年全国流动人口动态监测调查的证据
DOI：
10.1002/psp.2250
复制
发表时间：
2019-07-22
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Shen, Tiyan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gu, Hengyu;Liu, Ziliang;Shen, Tiyan
本文利用2016年全国流动人口动态监测数据，构建了一个描述我国农民工省际户口转移意愿的关系网络。运用空间分析方法和特征向量空间过滤引力模型，研究了户口迁移意愿网络的空间格局和影响因素。研究结果表明：（1）我国省际农民工多为低学历、中年、中低收入、职业导向型，其平均省际户口转移意愿为0.361;（B）在意图网络中存在显著的网络自相关，呈现出聚集和不平衡的空间格局，较高等级的意向从相对较不发达的地区流向较发达的特大城市;（3）各省对农民工的户口吸引力在空间上呈现随机分布，但户口排斥模式在空间上呈现集中分布：东北省份是热点，中部和东北部分省份是冷点;（4）地理因素中，距离对农民工的户口转移意愿有负向影响，而人口规模在来源地和目的地均无影响。社会经济因素，尤其是可支配收入，对农民工户口迁移意愿的影响最为显著;（e）个体因素方面，农民工跨省迁移是基于家庭发展的经济决策：子女多、收入成本比高、受教育程度高的农民工不愿迁移户口。此外，农民工的工作和住房条件也与其户口转移意愿密切相关。
Using 2016 data from the National Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring, this article establishes a relationship network to describe migrant workers' interprovincial hukou transfer intention in China. Spatial analysis methods and the eigenvector spatial filtering gravity model are employed to examine the spatial pattern and determinants of the hukou transfer intention network. The results show that (a) most interprovincial migrant workers in China are less educated, middle aged, with middle- or low-income levels, and job oriented, and their average interprovincial hukou transfer intention is 0.361; (b) there is significant network autocorrelation in the intention network, which presents a clustered and unbalanced spatial pattern where higher ranking intention flows from relatively less developed regions to more developed megacities; (c) provinces' hukou attractiveness to migrant workers demonstrates a random spatial pattern, but the hukou exclusion patterns are spatially concentrated: The north-east provinces are hotspots, whereas several central and north-east provinces are cold spots; (d) among geographical factors, distance exerts a negative influence on migrant workers' hukou transfer intention, whereas population size does not matter at origin or destination. Socio-economic factors, especially disposable income, play the most significant role in impacting migrant workers' hukou transfer intention; and (e) as for individual factors, migrant workers' interprovincial migration is an economic decision based on family development: Those with more children, higher ratios of income to cost, or higher education levels are reluctant to transfer their hukous. Besides, the job and housing conditions of migrant workers are also closely related to their hukou transfer intentions.