Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming
Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1182488
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发表时间：
2010-03-05
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Plattner, Gian-Kasper
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Solomon, Susan;Rosenlof, Karen H.;Plattner, Gian-Kasper
2000年以后，平流层水汽浓度下降了约10%。在这里，我们表明，与仅由于二氧化碳和其他温室气体而发生的情况相比，这一作用使2000-2009年全球表面温度的上升速度减缓了约25%。更有限的数据表明，平流层水蒸气可能在1980年至2000年之间增加，这将使1990年代地面变暖的十年速率比忽略这一变化的估计增加约30%。这些发现表明，平流层水汽是全球地面气候变化的重要驱动力。
Stratospheric water vapor concentrations decreased by about 10% after the year 2000. Here we show that this acted to slow the rate of increase in global surface temperature over 2000-2009 by about 25% compared to that which would have occurred due only to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. More limited data suggest that stratospheric water vapor probably increased between 1980 and 2000, which would have enhanced the decadal rate of surface warming during the 1990s by about 30% as compared to estimates neglecting this change. These findings show that stratospheric water vapor is an important driver of decadal global surface climate change.