E-commerce: a market analysis and prognostication
E-commerce: a market analysis and prognostication
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电子商务：市场分析与预测
DOI：
10.1145/324042.324044
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发表时间：
1998
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Sherrie Bolin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sherrie Bolin
卡尔·卡吉尔的前言：本文从分析师的角度探讨了电子商务的市场潜力。我向雪莉·博林要了一份她提供给客户的报告的副本，供他们在市场分析和市场潜力评估中使用。我对该报告的格式作了一些改动，以确保不易确定报告所涉客户的身份。该报告公平地总结了电子商务市场的潜力;鉴于最近的进展，它可能低估了该市场的规模和速度。这是一种研究，管理人员考虑开展电子商务扩张或电子商务活动使用开始他们的计划。Sherrie Bolin向其提供此信息的公司已采取行动，并已启动/扩展电子商务（基于Web）网站。正是这种类型的报告促使许多业内人士采取行动。您会注意到，标准从未在报告中明确提出-预计它们将在那里，用于安全性，用于Web，用于表示，用于隐私。Web上的商业活动的目的是赚钱;支持这些活动的标准是必要的基础设施的一部分。在财团和标准开发组织没有提供这些标准的活动的情况下，由于涉及巨额资金，市场将采取一些措施。这是本文中最重要的教训之一-市场将推动成功/完成，有或没有技术人员的积极参与，以标准来构建它。电子数据交换是一种安全可靠的电子交换标准化商业表格的方法。自20世纪70年代末以来，它已被用于自动化采购过程和降低成本。分析师估计，企业通过EDI进行的贸易超过1500亿美元，并节省了5-10%（美国商务部）。然而，由于EDI通常在增值网络上运行，因此成本很高。例如，增加一个贸易伙伴的成本可能超过50，000美元。虽然电子数据交换交易的价值目前比通过因特网/万维网进行的企业对企业交易高14倍，但正在发生一种转变。Gartner集团预测，到2003年，80%的现有EDI用户将实施EDI。这一过渡将使传统上通过传真和电话开展业务的小企业能够以具有成本效益的方式参与采购过程，并成为大公司的供应商。像WebEDI这样的公司已经在开发软件，可以将EDI购买表格转换为小型供应商的Web表格。
■ Foreword by Carl Cargill: This article examines the market potential for e-commerce from an analyst’s point of view. I asked Sherrie Bolin for a copy of a report that she had provided to clients for their use in market analysis and market potential sizing. I have made some changes to the format of that report, to ensure that the identity of the clients for whom the report was prepared cannot easily be determined. The report fairly summarizes the potential for the e-commerce market; in light of recent advances it may understate the size and speed of that market. This is the kind of study that managers considering embarking on an e-commerce expansion or e-commerce activity use to begin their planning. The firms to which Sherrie Bolin provided this information have acted upon it, and have initiated/expanded e-commerce (Web-based) sites. It is this type of report that drives many in the industry to action. You will note that standards are never explicitly called out in the report—it is expected that they will be there, for security, for the Web, for presentation, for privacy. The point of commerce on the Web is to make money; standards to support such initiatives are part of the necessary infrastructure. In the absence of activity on the part of the consortia and Standards Developing Organizations to provide them, the market will put something in place because of the tremendous amounts of money involved. This is one of the most important lessons in this article— that the market will drive to success/completion, with or without active participation by technologists to structure it with standards. lectronic Data Interchange is a safe and secure means of exchanging standardized business forms electronically. Since the late 1970s, it has been used to automate the procurement process and reduce costs. Analysts estimate that businesses trade in excess of $150 billion over EDI and obtain savings of 5–10% (US Department of Commerce). However, because EDI is usually run over Value-Added Networks, the costs are high. For example, the cost to add one trading partner can exceed $50,000. While the value of EDI transactions are currently 14 times higher than business-tobusiness transactions over the Internet/ Web, a transition is occurring. The Gartner Group predicts that 80% of current EDI users will implement extranets by 2003. This transition will allow small businesses that traditionally conduct business via fax and phone to cost-effectively participate in the procurement process and become suppliers to larger companies. Companies such as WebEDI are already developing software that can turn EDI purchase forms into Web forms for smaller suppliers.