Climate change impact of wind energy availability in the Eastern Mediterranean using the regional climate model PRECIS
Climate change impact of wind energy availability in the Eastern Mediterranean using the regional climate model PRECIS
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DOI：
10.5194/nhess-8-1249-2008
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发表时间：
2008-11
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
A. Bloom;V. Kotroni;K. Lagouvardos
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Bloom;V. Kotroni;K. Lagouvardos
预计全球近地表风场将因气候变化而发生变化。加强对二十一世纪风能供应变化的了解对于改善风能生产的发展至关重要。我们使用东地中海的 PRECIS 区域模型来动态缩小 Had3CM 大气-海洋耦合全球环流模型的结果。通过比较当前的气候模拟（1961-1990）和IPCC A2排放情景模拟（2071-2100）来确定21世纪的风场变化。通过将其结果与ERA40重新分析数据进行比较来评估当前风速气候模拟的一致性。 ERA40重新分析的风场与PRECIS当前气候模拟的风场的比较显示出相对较大的平均差异，这可能部分归因于两个数据源的空间分辨率的差异。 2071-2100年陆地风速普遍增加，海上风速下降，但爱琴海风速明显增加。
Global near-surface wind fields are projected to change as a result of climate change. An enhanced knowl- edge of the changes in wind energy availability in the twenty- first century is essential for improving the development of wind energy production. We use the PRECIS regional model over the East Mediterranean to dynamically downscale the results of the Had3CM Atmosphere-Ocean coupled Global Circulation Model. Wind field changes during the 21st cen- tury are determined by comparing the current climate sim- ulation (1961-1990) with the IPCC A2 emissions scenario simulation (2071-2100). The consistency of the current cli- mate simulation of wind speeds is assessed by comparing its results to the ERA40 re-analysis data. The comparison of the wind field from ERA40 re-analysis to that from the PRE- CIS current climate simulation shows relatively large mean differences that could partly be attributed to the difference in the spatial resolution of the two sources of data. Wind speeds in 2071-2100 exhibit a general increase over land and a de- crease over the sea, with the exception of a noticeable in- crease over the Aegean Sea.