Early Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment
Early Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1203672
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发表时间：
2011-05-27
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Weidel, B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carpenter, S. R.;Cole, J. J.;Weidel, B.
灾难性的生态系统的变化可能会提前宣布的统计预警信号，如从扰动和方差上升回报率放缓。这些指标的理论背景是丰富的，但现实世界的测试是罕见的，特别是对整个生态系统。我们测试的假设，这些统计数据将是早期预警信号的实验诱导制度转变的水生食物网。我们在3年的时间里逐渐将顶级捕食者添加到湖泊中，以破坏其食物网的稳定。一个相邻的湖泊作为参考生态系统进行了监测。一个政权转变的警告信号是明显的，在操纵湖在重组的食物网超过一年前的食物网过渡完成，佐证了理论的领先指标的生态政权转变。
Catastrophic ecological regime shifts may be announced in advance by statistical early warning signals such as slowing return rates from perturbation and rising variance. The theoretical background for these indicators is rich, but real-world tests are rare, especially for whole ecosystems. We tested the hypothesis that these statistics would be early warning signals for an experimentally induced regime shift in an aquatic food web. We gradually added top predators to a lake over 3 years to destabilize its food web. An adjacent lake was monitored simultaneously as a reference ecosystem. Warning signals of a regime shift were evident in the manipulated lake during reorganization of the food web more than a year before the food web transition was complete, corroborating theory for leading indicators of ecological regime shifts.