Population Dynamics of Owned, Free-Roaming Dogs: Implications for Rabies Control
Population Dynamics of Owned, Free-Roaming Dogs: Implications for Rabies Control
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0004177
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发表时间：
2015-11-01
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Knobel, Darryn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Conan, Anne;Akerele, Oluyemisi;Knobel, Darryn
背景在非洲资源有限的社区，狂犬病是一种严重但被忽视的公共卫生威胁，该病毒存在于拥有的、自由漫游的家养狗群中。狂犬病的消灭可以通过对狗进行大规模疫苗接种来实现，但由于这些人群的快速更替，维持疫苗接种覆盖率对群体免疫的关键阈值受到阻碍。自由漫游的狗种群的人口动态的知识可以通知有效的规划和实施大规模的狗疫苗接种活动，以控制rabys.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe实施了一个健康和人口监测系统的狗，监测整个拥有的狗人口在一个定义的地理区域内的一个社区在普马兰加省，南非。我们量化了2012年1月1日至2014年1月1日24个月期间的人口统计率，并通过模拟疫苗接种覆盖率随时间的下降来评估其对狂犬病控制的影响。在此期间，人口下降了10%。2012年人口年增长率为+18.6%，2013年为-24.5%。2012年和2013年的粗年出生率（每1,000只狗观察年）分别为451和313。2012年的粗死亡率为406人，2013年为568人。2013年，女性的死亡率明显高于男性（死亡率比[MRR] = 1.54，95% CI = 1.28-1.85）。在0-3月龄阶段，接种狂犬病疫苗犬的死亡率显著低于未接种疫苗犬（2012年：MRR = 0.11，95%CI = 0.05-0.21; 2013年：MRR = 0.31，95%CI = 0.11-0.69）。模拟的结果表明，实现70%的疫苗接种覆盖率在年度运动将保持覆盖率高于临界阈值至少12 months.Conclusions和SignificanceOur的研究结果提供了一个证据基础，为世界卫生组织的70%的疫苗接种覆盖率在年度运动的辅助推导的目标。实现这一点将是有效的，即使在高度动态的人口，极高的增长率和快速更替。这增加了人们对通过大规模疫苗接种在非洲消除犬狂犬病的可行性的信心。
BackgroundRabies is a serious yet neglected public health threat in resource-limited communities in Africa, where the virus is maintained in populations of owned, free-roaming domestic dogs. Rabies elimination can be achieved through the mass vaccination of dogs, but maintaining the critical threshold of vaccination coverage for herd immunity in these populations is hampered by their rapid turnover. Knowledge of the population dynamics of free-roaming dog populations can inform effective planning and implementation of mass dog vaccination campaigns to control rabies.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe implemented a health and demographic surveillance system in dogs that monitored the entire owned dog population within a defined geographic area in a community in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. We quantified demographic rates over a 24-month period, from 1st January 2012 through 1st January 2014, and assessed their implications for rabies control by simulating the decline in vaccination coverage over time. During this period, the population declined by 10%. Annual population growth rates were + 18.6% in 2012 and -24.5% in 2013. Crude annual birth rates (per 1,000 dog-years of observation) were 451 in 2012 and 313 in 2013. Crude annual death rates were 406 in 2012 and 568 in 2013. Females suffered a significantly higher mortality rate in 2013 than males (mortality rate ratio [MRR] = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.28-1.85). In the age class 0-3 months, the mortality rate of dogs vaccinated against rabies was significantly lower than that of unvaccinated dogs (2012: MRR = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.05-0.21; 2013: MRR = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.11-0.69). The results of the simulation showed that achieving a 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns would maintain coverage above the critical threshold for at least 12 months.Conclusions and SignificanceOur findings provide an evidence base for the World Health Organization's empirically-derived target of 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns. Achieving this will be effective even in highly dynamic populations with extremely high growth rates and rapid turnover. This increases confidence in the feasibility of dog rabies elimination in Africa through mass vaccination.