The Trade-Related Impact of a UK Exit from the EU Single Market
The Trade-Related Impact of a UK Exit from the EU Single Market
复制标题
英国退出欧盟单一市场对贸易的影响
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2620718
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Narayanan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dan Ciuriak;Jingliang Xiao;Natassia Ciuriak;A. Dadkhah;Dmitry Lysenko;G. Narayanan
本报告对英国退出欧盟的贸易相关成本进行了估计，并将其与完全独立的英国可以获得的替代贸易政策的潜在好处进行了比较。将英国与欧盟其他国家的关系重新设定为世贸组织规则最惠国待遇的退出方案（“脱欧”）将带来巨大成本。通过谈判改变英国的地位，在很大程度上保持英国与欧盟其他国家的一体化，其水平与欧洲自由贸易联盟（“Brefta”）类似，相对于现状而言，成本要低得多。英国脱欧后可用的贸易政策选项不会涵盖英国脱欧水平的成本，但我们估计，提供足够的自由化潜力来覆盖英国脱欧水平的成本。虽然单边自由化是不够的，但如果再加上雄心勃勃的脱欧后贸易政策，重点是与主要贸易伙伴达成自由贸易协定，那么英国将基本上保持中立，并可能在贸易政策方面略微领先。这具体取决于布雷自由贸易协定后英国-欧洲联盟贸易边界的成本有多低，以及替代贸易政策实际实现的雄心水平。从长远来看，如果世界（包括欧盟）走向类似的自由贸易平衡，英国相对于世界其他国家全面自由化的先发优势最终将被削弱。在这种情况下，继续参与无边界单一市场的好处的现值可能会占主导地位，因为布雷自由贸易协定边界带来的额外贸易成本将继续无限期地产生。
This note develops estimates of the trade-related costs of an exit by the United Kingdom from the European Union and compares these to the potential benefits of the alternative trade policies to which a fully independent UK would have access. An exit scenario that re-sets the UK’s relationship with the rest of the EU to a WTO-rules most favoured nation basis (“Brexit”) would involve significant costs. A negotiated change in the UK’s status that largely preserves UK integration with the rest of the EU at a level similar to that of the European Free Trade Association (“Brefta”) is much less costly relative to the status quo. The trade policy options available to the UK post-exit would not cover Brexit-level costs, but, in our estimation, provide sufficient liberalization potential to cover the Brefta-level costs. While unilateral liberalization alone would fall short, if it is coupled with an ambitious post-exit trade policy focussed on securing free trade agreements with major trading partners, it would leave the UK essentially neutral and possibly modestly ahead on trade policy grounds. This depends on exactly how low the costs of the post-Brefta UK-REU trade border would be and on the level of ambition that the alternative trade policies would actually achieve. In a long-term perspective, if the world moves to a similar free trade equilibrium, the EU included, the first mover advantages to the UK of full liberalization against the rest of the world would eventually be eroded. In this case, the present value of the benefits of continued participation in the borderless single market would likely dominate, since the additional trade costs imposed by a Brefta border would continue to be incurred indefinitely.