Nowcast and forecast of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes in magnetosphere and ionosphere: Extension of WASAVIES to Earth orbit
Nowcast and forecast of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes in magnetosphere and ionosphere: Extension of WASAVIES to Earth orbit
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磁层和电离层中银河宇宙线 (GCR) 和太阳高能粒子 (SEP) 通量的临近预报和预测：WASAVIES 扩展到地球轨道
DOI：
10.1051/swsc/2019006
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Nagamatsu Aiko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sato Tatsuhiko;Kataoka Ryuho;Shiota Daikou;Kubo Yuki;Ishii Mamoru;Yasuda Hiroshi;Miyake Shoko;Miyoshi Yoshizumi;Ueno Haruka;Nagamatsu Aiko
实时估算卫星轨道上的宇宙线通量是空间天气研究的最大挑战之一。因此，我们开发了一个临近预报和预测银河宇宙线（GCR）和太阳高能粒子（SEP）通量在磁层和电离层的任何位置在地面水平增强（GLE）事件。它是航空暴露于SEP的预警系统（WASAVIES）的扩展版本，该系统可以通过使用地面几个中子监测器的计数率的实时数据和地球静止运行环境卫星（GOES）观测到的高能质子通量来确定事件剖面。扩展版本WASAVIES-EO可以根据双线元（TLE）数据计算卫星外的GCR和SEP通量。此外，考虑到该系统的屏蔽效应，还可以利用该系统估计国际空间站宇航员的器官床剂量和剂量当量率。WASAVIES-EO的准确性根据国际空间站测量的剂量率以及POES卫星在21世纪发生的大GLE期间观测到的高能质子通量得到了验证。国际空间站中的即时预报和预测剂量率之间的一致性，特别是在其时间结构方面，表明所开发的系统对未来使命操作的有用性。
Real-time estimation of cosmic-ray fluxes on satellite orbits is one of the greatest challenges in space weather research. Therefore, we develop a system for nowcasting and forecasting the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes at any location in the magnetosphere and ionosphere during ground-level enhancement (GLE) events. It is an extended version of the WArning System for AVIation Exposure to SEP (WASAVIES), which can determine event profiles by using real-time data of the count rates of several neutron monitors (NMs) at the ground level and high-energy proton fluxes observed by Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) satellites. The extended version, called WASAVIES-EO, can calculate the GCR and SEP fluxes outside a satellite based on its two-line element (TLE) data. Moreover, organ absorbed-dose and dose-equivalent rates of astronauts in the International Space Station (ISS) can be estimated using the system, considering its shielding effect. The accuracy of WASAVIES-EO was validated based on the dose rates measured in ISS, as well as based on high-energy proton fluxes observed by POES satellites during large GLEs that have occurred in the 21st century. Agreement between the nowcast and forecast dose rates in ISS, especially in terms of their temporal structures, indicates the usefulness of the developed system for future mission operations.