Water scarcity under scenarios for global climate change and regional development in semiarid northeastern Brazil
Water scarcity under scenarios for global climate change and regional development in semiarid northeastern Brazil
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DOI：
10.1080/02508060408691770
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发表时间：
2004-06-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Mendiondo, EM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
de Araújo, JC;Döll, P;Mendiondo, EM
位于巴西东北部半干旱地区的塞阿拉州经常遭受干旱，而且沿着水资源短缺。控制和减少水资源短缺的结构性政策，如水的供应和需求管理，应被视为长期规划，因此必须考虑到气候变化和区域发展。为此，本研究提出了一个基于模型的全球变化情景。评估了2001年至2025年期间塞阿拉184个城市的用水压力。为此，考虑到全球气候变化和发展政策的影响，提出了四种全球变化情景。气候，水文和用水模型和建议的指数计算识别长期的水压力。该方法在重点领域的应用表明，如果不采取有效的干预措施，到2025年，该州近60%的城市可能会遭受长期缺水。平均而言，塞阿拉州的城市在未来25年内每年缺水的可能性从9%到20%不等，具体取决于情景。在情景期间（25年），10%压力最大的城市每年面临缺水的可能性超过80%。结果还表明，分散的发展政策可以补偿气候趋势在情景期间对未来水供应可能产生的严重影响。
The state of Ceara, located in semiarid northeastern Brazil, suffers under irregularly recurring droughts that go along with water scarcity. Structural policies to control and reduce water scarcity, as water supply and demand management, should be seen as long-term planning, and thus must consider climate change and regional development. To this end, the present research proposes a model-based global change scenario. Water stress is assessed for 184 municipalities in Ceara between 2001 and 2025. For this purpose, four global change scenarios are developed, considering both global climate change and the effects of development policies. Climatic, hydrological, and water use models are applied and a proposed index computed for identification of long-term water stress. Application of the methodology in the focus area shows that, if no effective intervention measures are taken, up to almost 60 percent of the municipalities of the state may suffer under long-term water scarcity by 2025. On average, municipalities in the state of Ceara have a water shortage probability for the next 25 years ranging from 9 percent to 20 percent annually, depending on the scenario. The 10 percent most stressed municipalities have a probability of over 80 percent annually of facing water scarcity in the scenario period (25 years). Results also show that a decentralized development policy can compensate for the possible severe effects of climatic trends on future water availability over the scenario period.