Tree-ring reconstructed summer temperature anomalies for temperate East Asia since 800 CE
Tree-ring reconstructed summer temperature anomalies for temperate East Asia since 800 CE
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-012-1611-x
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发表时间：
2013-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Sano, Masaki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cook, Edward R.;Krusic, Paul J.;Sano, Masaki
本文基于800-1989年的年轮年表网络建立了温带东亚地区的夏季温度重建。东亚地区的夏季温度重建是使用逐点回归的集合版本产生的585个单个网格点夏季温度重建的区域平均值。统计校准和验证试验表明，区域平均值具有足够的总体技能，可以用来研究该区域温度变率和变化的原因。重建表明，中世纪早期（约850-1050年）是一个温和的温暖时期，随后是普遍较冷的“小冰河期”（约1350-1880年）和20世纪的变暖，直到现在。自1990年以来，平均气温已经超过了过去可比持续时间的暖期，但在统计上并非史无前例。叠加年代分析揭示了东亚夏季温度重建中的火山强迫信号，导致可能持续数年的夏季较冷条件的脉冲。然而，大量的不确定性仍然存在，特别是在较低的频率，因此在解释这一记录时需要谨慎和科学审慎。
We develop a summer temperature reconstruction for temperate East Asia based on a network of annual tree-ring chronologies covering the period 800-1989 C.E. The East Asia reconstruction is the regional average of 585 individual grid point summer temperature reconstructions produced using an ensemble version of point-by-point regression. Statistical calibration and validation tests indicate that the regional average possesses sufficient overall skill to allow it to be used to study the causes of temperature variability and change over the region. The reconstruction suggests a moderately warm early medieval epoch (ca. 850-1050 C.E.), followed by generally cooler 'Little Ice Age' conditions (ca. 1350-1880 C.E.) and 20th century warming up to the present time. Since 1990, average temperature has exceeded past warm epochs of comparable duration, but it is not statistically unprecedented. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a volcanic forcing signal in the East Asia summer temperature reconstruction, resulting in pulses of cooler summer conditions that may persist for several years. Substantial uncertainties remain, however, particularly at lower frequencies, thus requiring caution and scientific prudence in the interpretation of this record.