Is it safe to lift COVID-19 travel bans? The Newfoundland story
Is it safe to lift COVID-19 travel bans? The Newfoundland story
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DOI：
10.1007/s00466-020-01899-x
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发表时间：
2020-08-29
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Kuhl, Ellen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Linka, Kevin;Rahman, Proton;Kuhl, Ellen
在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间，防止当地爆发疫情的一项关键战略是限制入境旅行。一旦一个地区成功地控制了这种疾病，决定何时以及如何重新开放边界就变得至关重要。在这里，我们以加拿大纽芬兰和拉布拉多省为例，探讨边境重新开放的影响，该省自2020年4月下旬以来没有出现新病例。我们将网络流行病学模型与机器学习相结合，推断参数并预测部分和全部机场重新开放，完美和不完美隔离条件下的COVID-19动态。我们的研究表明，在全面重新开放后，每隔一天就会有一个新的COVID-19病例进入该省。在目前的情况下，禁止来自加拿大境外的航空旅行比完全重新开放和隔离95%的入境人口更有效。我们的研究为旅行限制的有效性提供了定量的见解，并可以在重新开放的争议中为政治决策提供信息。
A key strategy to prevent a local outbreak during the COVID-19 pandemic is to restrict incoming travel. Once a region has successfully contained the disease, it becomes critical to decide when and how to reopen the borders. Here we explore the impact of border reopening for the example of Newfoundland and Labrador, a Canadian province that has enjoyed no new cases since late April, 2020. We combine a network epidemiology model with machine learning to infer parameters and predict the COVID-19 dynamics upon partial and total airport reopening, with perfect and imperfect quarantine conditions. Our study suggests that upon full reopening, every other day, a new COVID-19 case would enter the province. Under the current conditions, banning air travel from outside Canada is more efficient in managing the pandemic than fully reopening and quarantining 95% of the incoming population. Our study provides quantitative insights of the efficacy of travel restrictions and can inform political decision making in the controversy of reopening.