ENSO controls interannual fire activity in southeast Australia
ENSO controls interannual fire activity in southeast Australia
复制标题
DOI：
10.1002/2016gl070572
复制
发表时间：
2016-10-28
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Nyman, P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mariani, M.;Fletcher, M. -S.;Nyman, P.
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）是控制南太平洋海气系统变化的主要模式。虽然 ENSO 对南太平洋降雨情况的影响已有详细记录，但其在推动该地区火灾活动时空趋势方面的作用尚未得到严格研究。对于高度易燃且人口稠密的澳大利亚东南部地区尤其如此，ENSO 是该地区气候变化的主要控制因素。在这里，我们对 ENSO 如何控制澳大利亚东南部的火灾活动进行了首次全区域分析。我们发现 ENSO 与火灾频率和燃烧面积之间存在显着关系。重要的是，小波分析表明，尽管 ENSO 系统存在很大的时间变化，但 ENSO 对澳大利亚东南部的火灾活动产生了持续而重大的影响。我们的分析可直接应用于为日益重要的火灾管理工作开发强大的预测能力。
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode controlling the variability in the ocean-atmosphere system in the South Pacific. While the ENSO influence on rainfall regimes in the South Pacific is well documented, its role in driving spatiotemporal trends in fire activity in this region has not been rigorously investigated. This is particularly the case for the highly flammable and densely populated southeast Australian sector, where ENSO is a major control over climatic variability. Here we conduct the first region-wide analysis of how ENSO controls fire activity in southeast Australia. We identify a significant relationship between ENSO and both fire frequency and area burnt. Critically, wavelet analyses reveal that despite substantial temporal variability in the ENSO system, ENSO exerts a persistent and significant influence on southeast Australian fire activity. Our analysis has direct application for developing robust predictive capacity for the increasingly important efforts at fire management.