Verification of the MRI-Nonhydrostatic-Model Predicted Rainfall during the 1996 Baiu Season
Verification of the MRI-Nonhydrostatic-Model Predicted Rainfall during the 1996 Baiu Season
复制标题
1996 年 Baiu 季节 MRI 非静水力模型预测降雨量的验证
DOI：
10.2151/jmsj1965.76.5_719
复制
发表时间：
1998
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
H. Goda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Kato;K. Kurihara;H. Seko;Kazuo Saito;H. Goda
1996年白鸥季对气象研究所10公里分辨率非静力中尺度模式预报的热带气旋进行了检验。还将验证结果与日本气象厅（JMA）的10公里分辨率流体静力区域谱模式（RSM）的结果进行了比较。在MRI-NHM中采用了显式预报云水和雨水的暖雨方案，而在RSM中采用了两个参数化对流方案与大尺度凝结相结合。MRI-NHM大大高估了最大降水强度和强降水（> 20 mm h-1）的降水面积，略低估了弱降水（> 10 mm h-1）的降水面积。结果表明，MRI-NHM对10 mm h-1以上降水的预报精度高于RSM，而对5 mm h-1以下降水的预报精度则不如RSM。MRI-NHM可以在20 mm h-1以上击中几乎一半的半球。九州南部地区的降雨量预测比北方地区更准确。这是由于九州北方和南部地区暴雨形成机制的差异造成的。
The verification of the rainfalls predicted by the 10 km-resolution non-hydrostatic mesoscale model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-NHM) was performed during the 1996 Baiu season. The verification was also compared with the results of the 10 km-resolution hydrostatic Regional Spectral Model (RSM) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The warm rain scheme that explicitly predicts cloud water and rainwater is employed in MRI-NHM, while two parameterized convective schemes are used in conjunction with large scale condensation in RSM. The MRI-NHM greatly overestimated the maximum of precipitation intensity and the precipitation area of heavy rainfall (> 20 mm h -1 ), slightly underestimating the area of weak rainfall (∼ 1 mm h -1 ). The statistical scores showed that the MRI-NHM more accurately predicted the rainfall over 10 mm h -1 than the RSM, while the prediction of MRI-NHM is not as good as that of RSM for less than 5 mm h -1 rainfall. The MRI-NHM could hit almost half of the rainfalls over 20 mm h -1 . The rainfall was more accurately predicted in the southern region of Kyushu than in the northern region. This is resulted from the difference between the heavy rainfall formation mechanism in the northern and southern regions of Kyushu.