Influence of spatial heterogeneity on an emerging infectious disease:: the case of dengue epidemics
Influence of spatial heterogeneity on an emerging infectious disease:: the case of dengue epidemics
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2004.3020
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发表时间：
2005-06-07
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Dubois, MA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Favier, C;Schmit, D;Dubois, MA
以个体为基础的模型探讨了空间异质性和空间尺度(在村庄或邻里尺度上)的重要性。我们的推理是基于智利复活节岛(EI)的案例，2002年在一个村庄相对较少的人口中发生了第一次登革热疫情。即使在这种简单的情况下，真实的疫情也与同质模型不一致。相反，包括不同规模(家庭内部、家庭间、地区间)的接触异质性，不仅可以恢复EL流行病学曲线，还可以恢复巴西城市登革热疫情在更复杂情况下的定性模式。
The importance of spatial heterogeneity and spatial scales (at a village or neighbourhood scale) has been explored with individual-based models. Our reasoning is based on the Chilean Easter Island (EI) case, where a first dengue epidemic occurred in 2002 among the relatively small population localized in one village. Even in this simple situation, the real epidemic is not consistent with homogeneous models. Conversely, including contact heterogeneity on different scales (intra-households, inter-house, inter-areas) allows the recovery of not only the El epidemiological curve but also the qualitative patterns of Brazilian urban dengue epidemic in more complex situations.