Real-Time Imaging, Forecasting, and Management of Human-Induced Seismicity at Preston New Road, Lancashire, England
Real-Time Imaging, Forecasting, and Management of Human-Induced Seismicity at Preston New Road, Lancashire, England
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DOI：
10.1785/0220190110
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发表时间：
2019-09-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Kendall, J-Michael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Clarke, Huw;Verdon, James P.;Kendall, J-Michael
地下流体注入引起的地震在一系列行业中构成了一个重要问题。关于减轻地震危害的最有效方法的辩论仍在继续。诱发地震活动的观测表明，地震活动率与注入量成比例，事件遵循古腾堡-里克特分布。这两个推论使我们能够填充地震活动性的统计模型，并外推它们，以预测随着注入的继续，预期的事件震级。在这里，我们描述了一个页岩气网站，这种方法是用在真实的时间在水力压裂options.Microseismic观测期间作出经营决策揭示了水力压裂和一个预先存在的断层或裂缝网络，成为地震活跃的交叉点。虽然多次发生需要暂停注入程序的“红灯”事件，但观测到的事件震级符合外推统计模型的预期水平，地震活动水平仍在监管机构规定的可接受限度内。到目前为止，诱发地震通常使用追溯交通灯计划进行调节。这项研究表明，使用高质量的微震观测来填充预测预期事件震级的统计模型可以提供一种更有效的方法。
Earthquakes induced by subsurface fluid injection pose a significant issue across a range of industries. Debate continues as to the most effective methods to mitigate the resulting seismic hazard. Observations of induced seismicity indicate that the rate of seismicity scales with the injection volume and that events follow the Gutenberg-Richter distribution. These two inferences permit us to populate statistical models of the seismicity and extrapolate them to make forecasts of the expected event magnitudes as injection continues. Here, we describe a shale gas site where this approach was used in real time to make operational decisions during hydraulic fracturing operations.Microseismic observations revealed the intersection between hydraulic fracturing and a pre-existing fault or fracture network that became seismically active. Although "red light" events, requiring a pause to the injection program, occurred on several occasions, the observed event magnitudes fell within expected levels based on the extrapolated statistical models, and the levels of seismicity remained within acceptable limits as defined by the regulator. To date, induced seismicity has typically been regulated using retroactive traffic light schemes. This study shows that the use of high-quality microseismic observations to populate statistical models that forecast expected event magnitudes can provide a more effective approach.