Integrating system dynamics and fuzzy logic modeling to determine concession period in BOT projects
Integrating system dynamics and fuzzy logic modeling to determine concession period in BOT projects
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DOI：
10.1016/j.autcon.2011.09.015
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发表时间：
2012-03
影响因子：
10.3
通讯作者：
M. Khanzadi;F. Nasirzadeh;M. Alipour
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Khanzadi;F. Nasirzadeh;M. Alipour
特许权期限是BOT型合同安排中最重要的决策变量之一，应考虑存在的风险和不确定性来确定。本研究提出一个综合模糊系统动力学（SD）方法来确定特许期。运用系统动力学方法对影响BOT项目的各种因素之间复杂的相互关联结构进行建模。由于影响特许权期的各种因素的不精确性和不确定性，模糊逻辑集成到系统动力学建模结构。根据参与项目的不同专家的意见，用模糊数确定影响特许期的不同因素的值。应用Zadeh的扩展原理和区间算法，提出了系统动力学，使系统的结果，考虑到输入变量的不确定性。为了评估所提出的方法的性能，它已被用于一个高速公路项目。
The concession period is one of the most important decision variables in arranging a BOT-type contract which should be determined considering the existing risks and uncertainties. This research presents an integrated fuzzy-system dynamics (SD) approach for determination of concession period. The complex inter-related structure of different factors affecting a BOT project is modeled using the system dynamics approach. Owing to the imprecise and uncertain nature of different factors affecting the concession period, fuzzy logic is integrated into the system dynamics modeling structure. The values of different factors affecting the concession period are determined by fuzzy numbers based on the opinions of different experts involved in the project. The application of Zadeh's extension principle and interval arithmetic is proposed for the system dynamics to enable the system outcomes to be presented considering uncertainties in the input variables. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, it has been employed in a highway project.