Assessing Multiple Pathway Exposures: Variability, Uncertainty, and Ignorance
Assessing Multiple Pathway Exposures: Variability, Uncertainty, and Ignorance
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评估多途径暴露：变异性、不确定性和无知
DOI：
10.1007/978-1-4615-3294-1_12
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发表时间：
1991
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. McKone
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. McKone
人类一生中每天通过食物、水和空气接触不同数量的环境污染物。因此，一个现实的战略，管理城市焚化炉排放的潜在健康风险，需要一个全面的办法，充分注意到不确定性。本文以污染物从空气到食品的转移为例，讨论了暴露评估中的两个重要问题：暴露模型的完备性和暴露估计中不确定性的处理。本案例研究用于区分可变性（数据中固有的随机性）、无知（数据不完整和/或缺乏科学理解）和不确定性（可变性和无知相结合造成的接触估计差异）。对于空气/食物途径，我探索使用途径暴露因子（PEFs），结合联合收割机的环境分区信息（“逸度”，生物转移因子，沉积等）。将人类饮食、行为模式和生理学的数据转化为一个数字表达式，将环境空气浓度（mg/m3）与每日暴露量（mg/kg-d）联系起来。根据EPA协议，暴露表示人类通过肺部，肠壁和皮肤表面与污染物接触。我描述和评估的不确定性，通过空气/牛奶和空气/肉类途径的焚烧炉排放的暴露估计。我认为传播和分析不确定性的各种方法的优点和缺点。
Human populations contact environmental pollutants through food, water, and air in varying amounts each day throughout a lifetime. Thus, a realistic strategy for managing the potential health risks of municipal incinerator emissions requires a comprehensive approach with adequate attention to uncertainties. Using contaminant transfers from air to food as a case study, this paper considers two important issues in exposure assessment-completeness of the exposure model and the treatment of uncertainty in exposure estimates. This case study is used to distinguish between variability (inherent randomness in data), ignorance (incomplete data and/or lack of scientific understanding) and uncertainty (the variance in exposure estimates attributable to the combination of variability and ignorance). For the air/food pathways, I explore the use of pathway exposure factors (PEFs) that combine information on environmental partitioning (“fugacity,” biotransfer factors, deposition, etc.) with data on human diet, behavior patterns, and physiology into a numerical expression that links ambient air concentrations in mg/m3into daily exposure in-mg/kg-d. Following EPA protocol, exposure expresses human contact with contaminants through the lungs, the gut wall, and skin surface. I describe and assess the uncertainty for exposure estimates of incinerator emissions through the air/milk and air/meat pathways. I consider the advantages and disadvantages of various methods for propagating and analyzing uncertainties.