Pattern and trend analysis of temperature in a set of seasonal ensemble simulations
Pattern and trend analysis of temperature in a set of seasonal ensemble simulations
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DOI：
10.1029/2003gl019298
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发表时间：
2004-06
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Mei Zhao;P. Dirmeyer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mei Zhao;P. Dirmeyer
我们利用观测到的海面温度 (SST) 进行了 18 年的季节性 10 元集合模拟，以评估动力模型预测北半球夏季季节性年际气候变化的能力。此外，还设计了测试用例来评估气候趋势、土地初始条件的可预测性、地表降水和辐射通量的系统误差以及二氧化碳增加的作用。该模型再现了与观察到的类似的地表温度全球变暖趋势。这似乎归因于海温的影响。然而，地表通量替换和大气初始化可以减少海温驱动的趋势，同时改善地表气温的空间格局。结果还表明，地表相互作用对地表温度和对流层高层都有影响。然而，实际上增加二氧化碳浓度对这些季节性模拟影响不大。
Eighteen years of seasonal 10‐member ensemble simulations have been performed with observed sea surface temperature (SST) to assess the ability of dynamical models to predict seasonal‐interannual climate variations during boreal summer. In addition, test cases have been designed to assess the role in climate trends, predictability of land initial conditions, systematic errors of precipitation and radiation fluxes at the land surface, and increasing CO2. The model reproduces a global warming trend in surface temperature similar to that observed. This appears to be attributable to the influence of SST. However, surface flux replacement and atmospheric initialization can reduce the SST‐driven trend even while improving the spatial pattern of surface air temperature. The results also show that land surface interaction has an effect both on surface temperature and the higher levels of the troposphere. However, realistically increasing CO2 concentrations have little impact in these seasonal simulations.