Projections of future soil temperature in northeast Iran
Projections of future soil temperature in northeast Iran
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DOI：
10.1016/j.geoderma.2019.04.034
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发表时间：
2019-09
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Alireza Araghi;J. Adamowski;C. Martinez;J. Olesen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Alireza Araghi;J. Adamowski;C. Martinez;J. Olesen
Soil temperature (Ts) is an important meteorological variable that noticeably impacts ecology, agriculture, and hydrology. In contrast to air temperature, there has been little focus on the projection ofTsin the future under climate change. In this study, futureTswere estimated at three weather stations (Ghoochan, Gonabad and Mashhad) in northeast Iran using an ensemble of 17 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). TheseTswere analyzed under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios by applying the Soil Temperature and Moisture Model (STM2). For each site, projected estimates were made for 10-year periods between 2025 and 2095, at depths of 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 cm. Analysis of the data from the three stations yieldedTsincrements ranging from 0.8 to 1.5 °C, 1.2–2.3 °C, and 2.4–4.4 °C, based on RCP scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, respectively. IncreasedTsmay enhance crop development, especially during crop emergence and during parts of the vegetative period, but can also impact soil processes such as the rate of nutrient and CO2release from soil organic matter, and the rate of evaporation. Due to this phenomenon, increasedTscan create faster and higher water deficits in soil, especially in arid to semi-arid climates. The method used in this study is applicable to diverse geographical contexts and the authors recommend similar studies be undertaken elsewhere in order to obtain further projectedTsdata. The optimization of the current method may be particularly useful for future agro-climatological studies, asTsimpacts both plant and soil processes in addition to soil-atmosphere exchanges.
