Renegotiation of Trade Agreements and Firm Exporting Decisions: Evidence from the Impact of Brexit on UK Exports
Renegotiation of Trade Agreements and Firm Exporting Decisions: Evidence from the Impact of Brexit on UK Exports
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贸易协定的重新谈判和坚定的出口决策：英国脱欧对英国出口影响的证据
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3211689
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Lu Han
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Crowley;Oliver Exton;Lu Han
贸易协定的重新谈判给经济环境带来了不确定性。 2016年6月，英国选民出人意料地投票决定脱离欧盟，开启了英国与欧盟开始重新谈判英欧贸易关系条款的新时代。我们利用这个自然实验来估计与贸易协定重新谈判相关的不确定性对英国企业出口参与决策的影响。从 Handley 和 Limao (2017) 贸易政策不确定性下的出口模型出发，我们得出了在不确定的“重新谈判制度”下企业进入（退出）外国市场的可检验预测。根据经验，我们对 2016 年 6 月后从英国向欧盟出口的企业面临的贸易政策不确定性进行了衡量。利用英国在企业和产品层面的出口交易范围，以及“威胁点”关税的横截面变化，我们估计，2016 年，超过 5300 家出口商没有开始向欧盟出口新产品，而超过 5400 家出口商退出了向欧盟出口产品。 欧盟。如果从英国向欧盟出口的企业没有在 2016 年 6 月之后面临更大的贸易政策不确定性，那么 2016 年的进入（退出）将会增加 5.0%（减少 6.1%）。
The renegotiation of a trade agreement introduces uncertainty into the economic environment. In June 2016 the British electorate unexpectedly voted to leave the European Union, introducing a new era in which the UK and EU began to renegotiate the terms of the UK-EU trading relationship. We exploit this natural experiment to estimate the impact of uncertainty associated with trade agreement renegotiation on the export participation decision of firms in the UK. Starting from the Handley and Limao (2017) model of exporting under trade policy uncertainty, we derive testable predictions of firm entry into (exit from) a foreign market under an uncertain `renegotiation regime'. Empirically, we develop measures of the trade policy uncertainty facing firms exporting from the UK to the EU after June 2016. Using the universe of UK export transactions at the firm and product level, and cross-sectional variation in `threat point' tariffs, we estimate that in 2016 over 5300 exporters did not enter into exporting new products to the EU, whilst over 5400 exporters exited from exporting products to the EU. Entry (exit) in 2016 would have been 5.0% higher (6.1% lower) if firms exporting from the UK to the EU had not faced increased trade policy uncertainty after June 2016.