Can Central Banking Survive the IT Revolution
Can Central Banking Survive the IT Revolution
复制标题
中央银行能否在信息技术革命中生存下来
DOI：
10.1111/1468-2362.00048
复制
发表时间：
2000
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
C. Goodhart
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Goodhart
中央银行的负债，以未偿还货币和商业银行持有的存款的形式，为银行体系提供货币基础。通过垄断控制这一货币基础，2每个国家的中央银行都能够确定名义短期利率水平，3至少在短期内是这样。4现在有人建议，电子商务和相关电脑化的进一步发展将减弱甚至完全消除对货币基础的需求，特别是对货币的需求；对货币基础的需求的消失反过来将限制甚至阻止中央银行在这种系统中设定名义利率，见King(1999)5，B.Friedman(1999)，以及在更仔细和更广泛的分析中，Bengtsson(1999 a和b)。不足为奇的是，自由银行学派的支持者对这一前景充满热情，见Frezza(1997)。本文的目的是论证这些经济学家在这两个方面都是错误的。首先，作为一个实际命题，IT革命不会消除对货币的需求(除了在奥威尔式的计划经济中，甚至在那里可能都不会)。这将是本说明第二节的主题。
The liabilities of Central Banks, in the shape of currency outstanding and the deposits held with them by commercial banks, provide the monetary base for the banking system. By means of their monopoly control of this monetary base, 2 the Central Bank in each country is able to fix the level of the nominal short-term interest rate, 3 at least in the short run. 4 The suggestion has now been made that the further development of e-commerce and associated computerisation will attenuate, or even remove altogether, the demand for monetary base, notably for currency; and that such vanishing demand for monetary base will in turn limit, or even prevent, the Central Bank from setting nominal interest rates in such a system, see King (1999) 5, B. Friedman (1999) and in a more careful and extensive analysis, Bengtsson (1999 a and b). Not surprisingly, proponents of thefree banking'school are enthusiastic about this prospect, see Frezza (1997).It is the purpose of this paper to argue that these economists are wrong on both counts. First, as a practical proposition, the IT revolution is not going to remove the demand for currency,(except in an Orwellian command economy, and probably not even there). This will be the subject of Section II of this note.