The self-reinforcing effects of population decline: An analysis of differences in moving behaviour between rural neighbourhoods with declining and stable populations
The self-reinforcing effects of population decline: An analysis of differences in moving behaviour between rural neighbourhoods with declining and stable populations
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jrurstud.2014.09.006
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发表时间：
2014-10-01
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Mulder, Clara H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Elshof, Hans;van Wissen, Leo;Mulder, Clara H.
人口减少的后果出现在不同的地理范围，而且往往被认为是自我加强的。这意味着人口减少可能会引起生存环境的变化，从而导致更多的人口下降。这项研究分析了在荷兰北部，社区水平上的人口下降是否会对迁出或迁入农村社区的可能性产生影响。人们预计，之前社区人口的减少会增加迁出该社区的可能性，但这种影响在人口类别和短途和长途迁移中有所不同。利用2006年的登记数据和额外的调查，构建了一个多项逻辑回归模型，以估计不同类别的人口在短期和长期迁移概率上的邻里人口减少的影响。研究发现，先前社区人口的减少增加了人们迁出该社区的可能性。然而，这种影响只出现在搬离社区10公里以内的人群中，尤其是年轻人、有孩子的夫妇和65至75岁的人。此外，通过计算迁出人口减少和稳定的社区的估计概率，表明迁出这两类社区的实际人数之间的差异很小，因此可能需要很长时间才能对社区人口产生严重影响。(C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
The consequences of population decline are present at different geographical scales and are often believed to be self-reinforcing. This means that population decline possibly causes changes in the living environment, which brings about more population decline. This research analysed if population decline at the neighbourhood level has an effect on the probability to move out or within rural neighbourhoods in North-Netherlands. It was expected that a preceding decline of the population in the neighbourhood increased the probability to move out of the neighbourhood, but that this effect differed for categories of the population and for moves over short and long distance. Using register data and additional surveys for 2006, a multinomial logistic regression model was constructed to estimate the effects of a preceding decline of neighbourhood populations on the probability to move over short and long distances for different categories of the population. It was found that a preceding decline of the neighbourhood population increased the probability to move out of the neighbourhood. However, this effect was only found for moves out of the neighbourhood up to 10 km of especially young adults, couples with children, and people aged 65 to 75. Moreover, by calculating estimated probabilities of moving out of neighbourhoods with declining and stable populations, it was shown that the difference between actual numbers of people moving out of these two types of neighbourhoods, was small and could therefore take a long time to have serious impact on the neighbourhood population. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.