CULTURE PROCESS AND THE INTERPRETATION OF RADIOCARBON DATA
CULTURE PROCESS AND THE INTERPRETATION OF RADIOCARBON DATA
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DOI：
10.1017/rdc.2017.124
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发表时间：
2018-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
Kelly, Robert L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Freeman, Jacob;Byers, David A.;Kelly, Robert L.
在过去的十年里，考古学家们转向了大量的放射性碳（C-14）数据集来推断史前人口的规模和变化。一个突出的问题是，对人类种群的碳-14日期的估计有多直接。在本文中，我们提出碳-14日期是对能源消耗的更好估计，而不是对人口规模的无中介比例估计。我们使用参数化模型来描述人类社会中人口规模、经济复杂性和能源消耗之间的关系，然后使用现代背景下的数据对模型进行参数化。我们的研究结果表明，能源消耗与人口规模呈亚线性关系，这意味着对大型C-14时间序列的分析有可能错误估计人口变化率和绝对人口规模。能源消耗也是经济复杂性的指数函数。因此，随着复杂性的增加或减少，C-14记录可能半独立于种群而变化。尺度模型是促进未来研究的重要工具，可以梳理出人口和社会复杂性对能源消耗的不同影响，并解释不同地区碳-14日期时间序列形式的变化。
Over the last decade, archaeologists have turned to large radiocarbon (C-14) data sets to infer prehistoric population size and change. An outstanding question concerns just how direct of an estimate C-14 dates are for human populations. In this paper we propose that C-14 dates are a better estimate of energy consumption, rather than an unmediated, proportional estimate of population size. We use a parametric model to describe the relationship between population size, economic complexity and energy consumption in human societies, and then parametrize the model using data from modern contexts. Our results suggest that energy consumption scales sub-linearly with population size, which means that the analysis of a large C-14 time-series has the potential to misestimate rates of population change and absolute population size. Energy consumption is also an exponential function of economic complexity. Thus, the C-14 record could change semi-independent of population as complexity grows or declines. Scaling models are an important tool for stimulating future research to tease apart the different effects of population and social complexity on energy consumption, and explain variation in the forms of C-14 date time-series in different regions.