Variations in discharge from the Qilian mountains, northwest China, and its effect on the agricultural communities of the Heihe basin, over the last two millennia
Variations in discharge from the Qilian mountains, northwest China, and its effect on the agricultural communities of the Heihe basin, over the last two millennia
复制标题
近两千年来中国西北祁连山流量变化及其对黑河流域农业社区的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s12685-012-0057-8
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Yao TD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sakai A;Inoue M;Fujita K;Narama C;Kubota J;Nakawo M;Yao TD
在过去的两千年里，中国西北部黑河流域的农田遭受了一系列严重的干旱和洪水事件。这些记录的水文事件进行了比较，从山区河流和河流冰川流量的估计。冰川面积的大小是验证山区水体残留的重要依据，尽管目前冰川面积仅占该高山区的1.5%。这些冰川质量平衡和流量的估计，使用代用数据计算，似乎是合理的，因为在小冰期（LIA）的总最大冰川面积是可比的最大冰川面积从终端冰碛的位置推断。祁连山冰川面积在LIA期间最大的精确时间是未知的。然而，计算出的冰川面积的变化表明，冰川的范围在1520年至1690年之间达到了最大值。历史上的一些干旱事件发生在山区流量减少的时期，相反，洪水事件往往与冰川流量增加同时发生。历史文献记录了公元1200年至2000年期间该盆地发生的五次多年干旱。河流和河流冰川流量的波动模式的建模意味着，至少有两个干旱事件是人为驱动的。此外，干旱事件的存在或不存在的原因被认为是基于连续的流量波动和各年龄的需水量，这可以通过分析间歇性的历史文献来估计。
Over the last two millennia, agricultural land in the Hei river basin, northwest China, has been subjected to a series of significant droughts and flood events. These documented hydrological events were compared to estimates of fluvial and fluvioglacial discharge from the mountains. Areal extents of glaciers are important for validation as water mass remaining in mountain area, although glacier area occupied only about 1.5 % at present in this high mountain area. These glacier mass balance and discharge estimates, calculated using proxy data, appear reasonable, as the total maximum glacier area during the little ice age (LIA) was comparable to the maximum glacier area deduced from the positions of terminal moraines. The precise timing of the glacier area maximum during the LIA in the Qilian mountains is unknown. However, variations in the calculated glacier area suggest that glacier extent reached a maximum between 1520 and 1690 CE. A number of the historical drought events occurred during periods of reduced discharge from the mountains, and, conversely, flood events tended to coincide with an increase in discharge from glaciers. Historical documents record five multi-year droughts in the basin between 1200 and 2000 CE. The modelling of the fluctuating pattern of fluvial and fluvioglacial discharge implies that at least two drought events were anthropogenically driven. Furthermore the reasons for the presence or absence of drought events are considered based on continuous discharge fluctuation and water demands of each ages, that can be estimated from analysing intermittent historical documents.