Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply
Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply
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DOI：
10.1007/s10980-015-0159-7
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发表时间：
2015-04-01
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Sohl, Terry L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Byrd, Kristin B.;Flint, Lorraine E.;Sohl, Terry L.
背景 除了生物多样性保护之外，加州牧场还提供多种生态系统服务，包括牲畜生产、饮用水和灌溉用水以及碳封存。加州牧场生态系统已经历了向住宅用地和更加集约化农业的实质性转变。 目标 为了了解对牧场生态系统服务的潜在影响，我们为加州中央山谷和周围山麓开发了六种空间明确 (250 m) 气候/土地利用变化情景，与政府间气候变化专门委员会的三个排放情景叙述一致。方法 我们量化了野生动物栖息地、土壤有机碳 (SOC) 和供水（补给和径流）的基线和预测变化。对于六个流域案例研究，我们量化了未来发展和气候变化对补给、径流和水流以及降水阈值的相互作用，其中主要流域水文过程通过协方差分析发生变化。 结果情景表明，在整个地区，栖息地丧失预计主要发生在草原，这主要是由于未来的发展（到 2100 年下降 37%），然而，优先保护错误中的栖息地丧失可能是由于农田和干草/牧场扩张（最多到 2100 年将达到 40%）。该地区草地顶部 20 厘米处含有约 100 太克的 SOC，到 2100 年，高达 39% 的 SOC 将发生转化。在干旱时期，补给过程通常主导径流。未来的发展降低了补给过程主导径流的降水值，再加上干旱时期，减少了补给的机会，特别是在深层土壤上。结论结果支持气候智能型土地利用规划的需要，该规划将补给区域考虑在内，这将为干旱年份的蓄水提供机会。鉴于对农业的预测，需要对牧场农业扩张与供水之间的反馈进行更多建模。
Context In addition to biodiversity conservation, California rangelands generate multiple ecosystem services including livestock production, drinking and irrigation water, and carbon sequestration. California rangeland ecosystems have experienced substantial conversion to residential land use and more intensive agriculture.Objectives To understand the potential impacts to rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) climate/land use change scenarios for the Central Valley of California and surrounding foothills consistent with three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario narratives.Methods We quantified baseline and projected change in wildlife habitat, soil organic carbon (SOC), and water supply (recharge and runoff). For six case study watersheds we quantified the interactions of future development and changing climate on recharge, runoff and streamflow, and precipitation thresholds where dominant watershed hydrological processes shift through analysis of covariance.Results The scenarios show that across the region, habitat loss is expected to occur predominantly in grasslands, primarily due to future development (up to a 37 % decline by 2100), however habitat loss in priority conservation errors will likely be due to cropland and hay/pasture expansion (up to 40 % by 2100). Grasslands in the region contain approximately 100 teragrams SOC in the top 20 cm, and up to 39% of this SOC is subject to conversion by 2100. In dryer periods recharge processes typically dominate runoff. Future development lowers the precipitation value at which recharge processes dominate runoff, and combined with periods of drought, reduces the opportunity for recharge, especially on deep soils.Conclusion Results support the need for climate-smart land use planning that takes recharge areas into account, which will provide opportunities for water storage in dry years. Given projections for agriculture, more modeling is needed on feedbacks between agricultural expansion on rangelands and water supply.