Probability of an Obese Person Attaining Normal Body Weight: Cohort Study Using Electronic Health Records
Probability of an Obese Person Attaining Normal Body Weight: Cohort Study Using Electronic Health Records
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DOI：
10.2105/ajph.2015.302773
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发表时间：
2015-09-01
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
Gulliford, Martin C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fildes, Alison;Charlton, Judith;Gulliford, Martin C.
目标.我们研究了一个肥胖的人达到正常体重的概率。我们从2004年至2014年的英国临床实践研究数据链中抽取了20岁及以上的个体样本。我们分析了76704名肥胖男性和99791名肥胖女性的数据。我们排除了接受减肥手术的参与者。我们估计了达到正常体重或体重减少5%的概率。在长达9年的随访中，1283名男性和2245名女性体重恢复正常。在单纯性肥胖症（体重指数= 30.0-34.9 kg/m2）中，达到正常体重的年概率男性为1/210，女性为1/124，在病态肥胖症（体重指数= 40.0-44.9 kg/m2）中，男性为1/1290，女性为1/677。每年达到5%体重减轻的概率为1/8的男性和1/7的女性病态肥胖。达到正常体重或保持体重减轻的可能性很低。基于社区体重管理计划的肥胖治疗框架可能是无效的。
Objectives. We examined the probability of an obese person attaining normal body weight.Methods. We drew a sample of individuals aged 20 years and older from the United Kingdom's Clinical Practice Research Datalink from 2004 to 2014. We analyzed data for 76 704 obese men and 99 791 obese women. We excluded participants who received bariatric surgery. We estimated the probability of attaining normal weight or 5% reduction in body weight.Results. During a maximum of 9 years' follow-up, 1283 men and 2245 women attained normal body weight. In simple obesity (body mass index = 30.0-34.9 kg/m(2)), the annual probability of attaining normal weight was 1 in 210 for men and 1 in 124 for women, increasing to 1 in 1290 for men and 1 in 677 for women with morbid obesity (body mass index = 40.0-44.9 kg/m(2)). The annual probability of achieving a 5% weight reduction was 1 in 8 for men and 1 in 7 for women with morbid obesity.Conclusions. The probability of attaining normal weight or maintaining weight loss is low. Obesity treatment frameworks grounded in community-based weight management programs may be ineffective.