Coastline responses to changing storm patterns
Coastline responses to changing storm patterns
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DOI：
10.1029/2006gl027445
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发表时间：
2006-09
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
J. Slott;A. Murray;A. Ashton;T. Crowley
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Slott;A. Murray;A. Ashton;T. Crowley
研究人员和海岸管理人员正在思考海平面加速上升和可能加剧的风暴将如何影响海岸线。这些问题通常是在跨海岸剖面框架中进行研究的，这就形成了一个隐含的假设，即海岸线的响应在沿海岸方向上大致是一致的。然而，最近在大空间范围内发展的海岸线变化数值模型的实验表明，海岸线对气候变化的响应可能是高度可变的。随着风暴和波浪气候的变化，大尺度的海岸线形状很可能发生变化，导致海岸侵蚀加速的地区与海岸线增生的地区交替发生。在复杂形状的海岸线上，包括尖角和尖嘴海岸线，岸线后退率的沿岸变化可能比海平面上升预期的基线后退率高一个数量级。
Researchers and coastal managers are pondering how accelerated sea‐level rise and possibly intensified storms will affect shorelines. These issues are most often investigated in a cross‐shore profile framework, fostering the implicit assumption that coastline responses will be approximately uniform in the alongshore direction. However, experiments with a recently developed numerical model of coastline change on a large spatial domain suggest that the shoreline responses to climate change could be highly variable. As storm and wave climates change, large‐scale coastline shapes are likely to shift—causing areas of greatly accelerated coastal erosion to alternate with areas of considerable shoreline accretion. On complex‐shaped coastlines, including cuspate‐cape and spit coastlines, the alongshore variation in shoreline retreat rates could be an order of magnitude higher than the baseline retreat rate expected from sea‐level rise alone.