The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project.
The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project.
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DOI：
10.1186/1476-069x-9-37
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发表时间：
2010-07-16
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Perucci CA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D'Ippoliti D;Michelozzi P;Marino C;de'Donato F;Menne B;Katsouyanni K;Kirchmayer U;Analitis A;Medina-Ramón M;Paldy A;Atkinson R;Kovats S;Bisanti L;Schneider A;Lefranc A;Iñiguez C;Perucci CA
本研究旨在制定一个标准化的热浪定义，以分别估计和比较1990-2004年和2003年夏季欧洲不同性别、年龄和死因对死亡率的影响，同时考虑热浪持续时间和强度。热浪的定义考虑了最高表观温度和最低温度，并按夏季的强度、持续时间和时间进行分类。其影响是根据 65 岁以上人群在热浪日与非热浪日每日死亡率增加的百分比来估计的。计算了按性别、年龄和死因划分的城市具体估计值和汇总估计值。热浪的影响在城市之间表现出很大的地理异质性。考虑到除 2003 年以外的所有年份，热浪期间死亡率的增幅从慕尼黑的 + 7.6% 到米兰的 + 33.6% 不等。在持续时间长、强度高的发作期间，这种增加最多可达 3 倍。汇总结果显示，地中海地区（总死亡率+21.8%）的影响比北大陆城市（+12.4%）更大。呼吸系统疾病和 75-84 岁女性的影响最大。 2003 年，热浪事件以异常气象条件为特征的城市受到的影响最大。气候变化情景表明，即使在热浪不频繁的地区，未来极端事件预计也会增加。考虑到结果，我们的预防计划应专门针对老年人、妇女和患有慢性呼吸系统疾病的人，从而减少对死亡率的影响。
The present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity. Heat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated. The effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from + 7.6% in Munich to + 33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+ 21.8% for total mortality) than in North Continental (+ 12.4%) cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions. Climate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality.