Prediction and attribution of quiescent tropical cyclone activity in the early summer of 2016: case study of lingering effects by preceding strong El Nino events
Prediction and attribution of quiescent tropical cyclone activity in the early summer of 2016: case study of lingering effects by preceding strong El Nino events
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2016年初夏静止热带气旋活动的预测和归因：先前强烈厄尔尼诺事件的持续影响案例研究
DOI：
10.1002/asl.760
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
and Hirahara Shoji
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Takaya Yuhei;Kubo Yutaro;Maeda Shuhei;and Hirahara Shoji
我们研究了2016年初夏（5月至7月）西北太平洋（WNP）热带气旋（TC）活动静止的机制，通过使用大气-海洋耦合模式进行季节预测和敏感性试验并进行分析。在季节性预报试验中，该模型成功地预报了热带气旋的不活跃状态。敏感性实验模拟，其中印度洋（IO）的海表温度（SST）高于正常值恢复到气候学，代表了WNP上空对流层低层反气旋异常减弱和接近正常的TC活动。这些结果表明，静止的TC活动可归因于2015/2016年厄尔尼诺引起的温暖的IO SST异常。再预报的验证和分析表明，由于IO变暖，初夏的TC计数是高度可预测的，这是厄尔尼诺事件的一个挥之不去的影响。
We investigated mechanisms contributing to the quiescent tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) during the early summer (May–July) of 2016 by conducting and analysing seasonal predictions and sensitivity experiments with an atmosphere–ocean coupled model. In the seasonal prediction experiment, the model successfully predicted the inactive TC condition. Sensitivity experiment simulations, in which the warmer‐than‐normal sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean (IO) was restored to the climatology, represented a weakened lower‐tropospheric anticyclonic anomaly and near‐normal TC activity over the WNP. These results suggest that the quiescent TC activity is attributable to the warm IO SST anomalies induced by the preceding 2015/2016 El Niño. Verification and analysis of reforecasts indicated that the TC count in early summer is highly predictable due to IO warming, a lingering effect of preceding El Niño events.