The method of uncertainty quantification and minimization using polynomial chaos expansions
The method of uncertainty quantification and minimization using polynomial chaos expansions
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.combustflame.2011.05.010
复制
发表时间：
2011-12
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
D. Sheen;Hai Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Sheen;Hai Wang
反应流系统的可靠模拟需要一个特性良好的、详细的化学模型作为基础。原则上，通过系统地研究个别速率系数，可以保证这种模型的准确性。然而，速率数据中固有的不确定性使模型仍然具有动力学速率参数空间的特征，其大小将持续有限。如果不仔细分析这种不确定性空间如何传播到模型预测中，这些预测充其量只能是半定量的。在这项工作中，我们提出了使用多项式混沌展开（MUM-PCE）的不确定性最小化方法来量化和约束这些不确定性。以已编制的H2/CO/ c1 - c4的详细动力学模型和一组乙烯燃烧数据为例。该方法对预编译模型中速率参数的不确定性进行了量化。然后，通过限制燃烧数据的速率系数以及一致性筛选过程，对模型进行严格的数学分析。最后，使用逆谱技术计算约束模型的不确定性，然后将其传播到一系列模拟条件中，以证明该方法的实用性和局限性。
Reliable simulations of reacting flow systems require a well-characterized, detailed chemical model as a foundation. Accuracy of such a model can be assured, in principle, by systematic studies of individual rate coefficients. However, the inherent uncertainties in the rate data leave a model still characterized by a kinetic rate parameter space which will be persistently finite in its size. Without a careful analysis of how this uncertainty space propagates into the model predictions, those predictions can at best be trusted only semi-quantitatively. In this work, we propose the Method of Uncertainty Minimization using Polynomial Chaos Expansions (MUM-PCE) to quantify and constrain these uncertainties. An as-compiled, detailed H2/CO/C1–C4kinetic model and a set of ethylene combustion data are used as an example. In this method, the uncertainty in the rate parameters of the as-compiled model is quantified. Then, the model is subjected to a rigorous mathematical analysis by constraining the rate coefficients against the combustion data, as well as a consistency-screening process. Lastly, the uncertainty of the constrained model is calculated using an inverse spectral technique, and then propagated into a range of simulation conditions to demonstrate the utilities and limitations of the method.