IUTAM Symposium on Physics and Mechanics of Sea Ice - Proceedings of the IUTAM Symposium held at Aalto University, Espoo, Finland, 3-9 June 2019
IUTAM Symposium on Physics and Mechanics of Sea Ice - Proceedings of the IUTAM Symposium held at Aalto University, Espoo, Finland, 3-9 June 2019
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IUTAM 海冰物理与力学研讨会 - 2019 年 6 月 3-9 日在芬兰埃斯波阿尔托大学举行的 IUTAM 研讨会论文集
DOI：
10.1007/978-3-030-80439-8_12
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Aksenov Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Aksenov Y
在过去几十年中，北极海上作业有所增加，部分原因是能源需求增加，部分原因是海冰状况缓解和航运路线的可达性改善。该研究审查了北极海冰和海洋状况的变化及其对近海安全的影响。这项研究的目的是为海上作业的预报技术奠定基础。我们评估了百年气候未来预测中海冰和海洋对离岸结构物的载荷，以及对北极航运的可达性和未来的影响。作为一个测试案例，我们计算了100米宽，20米高的管状结构上的负载，类似于20世纪80年代在博福特海的装置。随着海冰的消退，预计载荷将从目前的约0.1 × 106 N（MN）增加到21世纪90年代的约50-200 MN，主要是由于波浪载荷。这项研究表明，需要采用新的预报方法，使北极地区的海上作业更加安全。
The last decades witnessed an increase in Arctic offshore operations, partly driven by rising energy needs and partly due to easing of sea ice conditions and improved accessibility of shipping routes. The study examines changes in sea ice and ocean conditions in the Arctic with their implications for off-shore safety. The objective of the research is to develop a basis for forecasting technologies for maritime operations. We assess loads on off-shore structures from sea ice and ocean in centennial climate future projections and implications for the accessibility and future Arctic shipping. As a test case, we calculate loads on a tubular structure of 100-m wide and 20-m tall, similar to installations in the Beaufort Sea in the 1980s. With sea ice retreating, loads are predicted to increase from ~0.1 × 106N (MN) at present to ~50–200 MN in the 2090s, primarily due to wave loads. This study asserts the need for new approaches in forecasting to make marine operations in the Arctic safer.