Skin cancer and inorganic arsenic: Uncertainty-status of risk
Skin cancer and inorganic arsenic: Uncertainty-status of risk
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1539-6924.1997.tb00841.x
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发表时间：
1997-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Greene, HL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brown, KG;Guo, HR;Greene, HL
目前美国环保署对饮用水中无机砷的标准是50 ppb（μ g/L），可追溯到1976年的国家临时主要饮用水法规。目前的环境保护局风险分析预测，长期接触该浓度会使终生皮肤癌风险增加约3或4/1000。EPA分析表明，将标准修订为几ppb，甚至可能小于1 ppb，可将寿命风险降低到可接受的水平。水务公司以及最终其消费者为遵守如此大幅度降低的标准而付出的成本很容易达到数十亿美元，因此，准确评估当前的风险以及降低标准所能实现的风险降低尤为重要。本文讨论了EPA分析中与此目标相关的不确定性的主要来源。具体来说，它重点关注Tseng及其台湾同事具有里程碑意义的研究中暴露估计的不确定性和可变性，并使用暴露数据的重建进行分析。得出的结论是，虽然现有的数据集是适合建立皮肤癌的危害，它是过于高度总结可靠的剂量反应评估。需要进行一项新的流行病学研究，以满足剂量反应评估的要求。
The current U.S. EPA standard for inorganic arsenic in drinking water is 50 ppb (mu g/L), dating to the National Interim Primary Drinking Water Regulation of 1976. The current EPA risk analysis predicts an increased lifetime skin cancer risk on the order of 3 or 4 per 1000 from chronic exposure at that concentration. Revision of the standard to only a few ppb, perhaps even less than 1 ppb, may be indicated by the EPA analysis to reduce the lifetime risk to an acceptable level. The cost to water utilities, and ultimately to their consumers, to conform to such a large reduction in the standard could easily reach several billion dollars, so it is particularly important to assess accurately the current risk and the risk reduction that would be achieved by a lower standard. This article addresses the major sources of uncertainty in the EPA analysis with respect to this objective. Specifically, it focuses on uncertainty and variability in the exposure estimates for the landmark study of Tseng and colleagues in Taiwan, analyzed using a reconstruction of the their exposure data. It is concluded that while the available dataset is suitable to establish the hazard of skin cancer, it is too highly summarized for reliable dose-response assessment. A new epidemiologic study is needed, designed for the requirements of dose-response assessment.